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NAR Survey Finds Nearly Half of Realtors Say Home Buyer Interest Has Decreased Due to the Coronavirus Outbreak
WASHINGTON (March 19, 2020) -- Nearly half of Realtors -- 48% -- said home buyer interest has decreased due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to a new survey from the National Association of Realtors. That percentage tripled from a week ago when it stood at 16%. Almost seven in 10 Realtors -- 69% -- said there's no change in the number of homes on the market due to the coronavirus outbreak, down from 87% a week ago. "The decline in confidence related to the direction of the economy coupled with the unprecedented measures taken to combat the spread of COVID-19, including major social distancing efforts nationwide, are naturally bringing an abundance of caution among buyers and sellers," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "With fewer listings in what's already a housing shortage environment, home prices are likely to hold steady. The temporary softening of the real estate market will likely be followed by a strong rebound once the economic 'quarantine' is lifted, and it's critical that supply is sufficient to meet pent-up demand." NAR's latest Economic Pulse Flash Survey – conducted March 16-17, 2020 – asked members questions about how the coronavirus outbreak, including the significant declines in stock market values and mortgage interest rates, has impacted home buyer and seller interest and behavior as well as new commercial clients who want to lease and purchase property. With respect to the coronavirus, several highlights of the member survey include: 45% of members said the stock market correction and lower mortgage rates roughly balanced out, noting no significant change in buyer behavior. The majority of members, 61%, reported no change in sellers removing homes from the market, down from 81% a week ago. Four in 10 members said home sellers have not changed how their home is viewed while it remains on the market. One week ago, nearly eight in 10 members – 77% – said the same. More than half of commercial members, 54%, have seen a decline in leasing clients, up from 18% of commercial members last week. Eighty-three percent of commercial buildings have changed practices, with the most common being offering more hand sanitizer, more frequent building cleanings, and increasing numbers of tenants working remotely. View NAR's Economic Pulse Flash Survey full report here. The National Association of Realtors® is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.4 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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Exclusive Podcast Interview with NAR Chief Economist on Coronavirus Impact
National Association of REALTORS ® Chief Economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun, addresses the outlook of real estate markets in a special episode of "The Brian Buffini Show" podcast CARLSBAD, Calif., March 19, 2020 -- Chief economist and senior vice president of research for the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), Dr. Lawrence Yun, will discuss the impact of COVID-19 on real estate and the economy in an exclusive interview with real estate leader, Brian Buffini, on The Brian Buffini Show podcast. Available Thursday, March 19, the two experts will weigh in on the state of the housing market, the short/long-term outlook and how real estate agents can safely serve their clients and community. In a wide-ranging interview covering a variety of topics, Dr. Yun reveals his belief that a vibrant real estate market should emerge after the coronavirus threat subsides, "even if it takes a little longer to contain it, there are such solid fundamentals for the real estate market, things will play out very well over the long haul." Buffini advises real estate professionals to be a reliable source of market information for their clients and use the downtime to enhance their professional skills. He wants everyone to realize that "The sky is not falling. This is a difficult time, but in many ways, it could be our finest hour." Dr. Lawrence Yun is a renowned leader in real estate and economics. His extensive research fuels major reports for NAR, which serves a membership of more than 1.4 million real estate agents. During this interview, respected industry guru Brian Buffini complements Yun with his more than 30 years of real estate expertise, providing much needed clarity in the midst of an uncertain economic situation. The Brian Buffini Show podcast is now in its 4th year of providing real estate professionals and consumers with Brian's insightful observations, along with the views his well-known guests. The podcast has become recognized as one of the most influential in the industry, with over 7 million downloads. What: "This Too Shall Pass: An Interview with Dr. Lawrence Yun," The Brian Buffini Show special episode Who: Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, and Brian Buffini, Founder and Chairman of Buffini & Company Where: https://www.thebrianbuffinishow.com/ When: Available Thursday, March 19, 2020 @ 12:01 a.m. About Buffini & Company Buffini & Company is the largest coaching and training company in North America. Founded by real estate legend and master motivator Brian Buffini, the company provides a unique and highly-effective lead generation system. Buffini & Company's comprehensive business coaching, training programs and cutting-edge content have helped more than 3 million professionals in 37 countries improve their business, increase net profit and enhance their quality of life. Buffini & Company is headquartered in Carlsbad, California. For more information, please email [email protected] About Brian Buffini Brian Buffini, chairman and founder for Buffini & Company, was born and raised in Dublin, Ireland, emigrated to San Diego, California, in 1986 where he became the classic American rags-to-riches story. Discovering real estate, Brian quickly became one of the nation's top real estate agents working a non-traditional methodology based on building long-term relationships with clients. Today, he travels the world sharing a message of encouragement about how to "live the good life." His wit, wisdom and motivational style make him a dynamic speaker and podcast host, adept at helping people tap into their full potential and achieve their dreams. He is a New York Times, Amazon and Wall Street Journal best-seller with his latest book, "The Emigrant Edge." Learn more at brianbuffini.com.
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Housing Shortage Leads to Intense Competition Among Homebuyers
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Missing: For Sale Signs Across West, Midwest and Northeast Markets
For more options, buyers need to go South SANTA CLARA, Calif., Feb. 18, 2020 -- The nation's record low housing inventory is making shopping for a home in Buffalo and Rochester, N.Y., Columbus, Ohio, and Salt Lake City feel more like the tech hubs of San Francisco, Silicon Valley and Seattle, according to a new analysis issued today by realtor.com® that ranks the toughest and easiest markets to find a home. Based on the analysis, San Jose, Calif., led the list of toughest markets to buy a home with four listings per 1,000 homeowner households. San Jose is followed in rank order by San Francisco, Rochester and Buffalo, N.Y., and Seattle, which had an average of 5.2, 6.1, 7.1 and 7.2 for sale homes per 1,000 households, respectively. This compares to the national average of 16 listings per thousand owner-occupied homes. At the other end of the spectrum, the top 20 easiest markets to buy a home had an average of 22 for sale listings per 1,000 households. Fort Myers, Fla., topped the list of easiest markets to buy with nearly 38 listings per 1,000 households. It was followed by two other Florida markets -- Miami/Fort Lauderdale with 31.8 listings per 1,000 households and Deltona/Daytona Beach/Ormond at 30.9 listings per 1,000 households. Bridgeport/Stamford/Norwalk, Conn., with 29.7 listings per 1,000 households, and North Port/Sarasota/Bradenton with 25.8 listings per 1,000 households, rounded out the top five easiest markets to buy a home. "While the nation's housing supply continues to hit new lows just in time for the spring home-buying season, local market differences remain," said realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale. "Although the toughest list is sprinkled with some of the markets you expect, others may be a surprise -- they represent markets where housing is still affordable, but quality of life makes them attractive markets, especially for first-time buyers." Hale added, "We also found that 'easiest' doesn't mean that a market is struggling. Buyers searching in easier markets generally benefit from a combination of strong availability of homes for-sale and, with some exceptions, healthy, yet more moderate price growth." To determine the toughest and easiest markets to find a home, realtor.com® looked at the density of home listings in each market relative to the available stock of owned homes in the area and compared that to the number of active listings in a market per 1,000 households during the fourth quarter of 2019. Toughest Markets to Find a Home The top 20 toughest markets include a diverse geographic mix of larger established metros and up-and-comers where housing is still relatively affordable. They are concentrated in three regions of the country -- eight metros from the West, six from the Midwest and six from the Northeast. None of the markets are located in the South, which dominates the list of top 20 easiest markets to find a home. California led the national list of toughest markets, with six of the top 20 toughest markets coming from the state. Ohio followed with three markets -- Columbus, Cincinnati and Akron -- making the top 20 toughest markets list. The scarcity of homes is reflected in the market prices, and the trend in most of the toughest markets is toward even fewer homes for sale. The average median listing price for the top 20 toughest markets was $480,830 in January, 40 percent higher than the average median price of the top 100 largest markets. In addition, 17 of the top 20 toughest markets began 2020 with double-digit annual declines in available inventory, with a handful of markets seeing more than a 30 percent drop, including San Jose, San Francisco, Seattle, Salt Lake City and San Diego. Realtor.com®'s ranking of the top 20 toughest markets to find a home Easiest Markets to Find a Home The South dominates the list of easy places to find a home. Florida metros claimed four of the top five spots and seven of the top 20 easiest markets to find a home. Connecticut has three markets represented, while South Carolina and Texas each have two. The average median listing price for the top 20 easiest markets was $356,345 in January 2020, 3 percent higher than the average median price of the nation's 100 largest markets. Despite having a good supply of inventory, asking prices are growing and the number of for sale listings is dropping. For instance, the Fort Myers metro saw asking prices grow 8 percent year-over-year in January, while inventory declined 22 percent during the same period, which was in line with national market demand. Realtor.com®'s ranking of the top 20 easiest markets to find a home Methodology Households refer specifically to owner-occupied household counts sourced from Claritas estimates based on Census data. Listing per 1,000 households calculations were performed using data from Q4 2019. The latest listing price and active listings year-over-year data are from January 2020. About realtor.com® Realtor.com® makes buying, selling and living in homes easier and more rewarding for everyone. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today through its website and mobile apps is a trusted source for the information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. Using proprietary data science and machine learning technology, realtor.com® pairs buyers and sellers with local agents in their market, helping take the guesswork out of buying and selling a home. For professionals, realtor.com® is a trusted provider of consumer connections and branding solutions that help them succeed in today's on-demand world. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com.
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Migrants Out of Expensive West Coast Metros Flocked to Portland, Oregon in Q4 2019
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What Makes Buyers Fall in Love with a Home?
This Valentine's Day realtor.com® looks at the country's most loved home features SANTA CLARA, Calif., Feb. 11, 2020 -- What makes someone fall in love with a home? Across the U.S., people swoon over fabulous pools, stunning water views and ever-sexy storage space, but a new analysis released today by realtor.com® reveals what really makes home shoppers' hearts skip a beat. Realtor.com® analyzed keyword home search data in each U.S. state to determine regional must-have features when searching for a home. According to the data, Mainers want to go "upta camp," a local term used for a cabin or cottage. Oklahomans are looking for storm shelters, and California loves solar power. In Hawaii, where real estate prices are sky-high and leaseholds are part of the for-sale market, home shoppers are searching for "fee simple" homes to ensure they own the land and the building in their little piece of paradise. Additionally, D.C. residents want to be near the Metro, the city's local public transportation system, Pennsylvanians want parking; and in New York, where outdoor space can be hard to come by, residents would love to have a balcony. "While some of the country's most-loved home features, such as accessory dwelling units or lakefront properties, will likely fetch a premium on the open market, others are more matters of the heart," said George Ratiu, senior economist, realtor.com®. "Maybe you grew up in a certain style of home or have always dreamed of having a big yard -- everyone's vision of home is unique and being able to search for what makes a house perfect for you can help you find true love in a new home." If the shed's a-rockin' Topping the list of most-loved features are the makings for man-caves, she-sheds, workshops and granny pods. Popular search terms in this category include in-law apartment, barn, ADU, casita and RV parking. Residents in 13 states, including Arizona, Idaho, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah and Washington, all want alternative living spaces. Whether it's because they love being in close proximity to their relatives or because they love the extra rental income, separate spaces are a top must-have item. Don't come a-knockin' Unsurprisingly, people in many states love their privacy -- acreage, fenced yard, room for horses and a country setting all make the top searched feature list. Home shoppers in six states -- Alaska, Illinois, Iowa, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming -- all want room to roam and some real separation from the neighbors. Take my breath away With a large number of baby boomers reaching retirement age, America has fallen out of love with having to climb stairs. Residents in nine states -- Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Maryland, North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island and Virginia -- don't want anything to do with multi-level homes. Top searches in these states include first-floor master, ranch, rambler and single-level. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder For some, the old adage rings true that real estate is all about location, location, location. In Arkansas, Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Tennessee and West Virginia, having a heavenly location with beautiful views topped the must-have list. Home buyers in these states are searching for a lake view, canal, dock, lakeshore and river access as their favorite features. For others, it's all about looks. For example, in states like Connecticut and New Hampshire that have a lot of older homes, people are looking for contemporary style, while South Carolinians love traditional brick facades and Texans prefer a modern aesthetic. Most Searched Home Features For more information, read the full report here. Methodology: The top features were derived from realtor.com® home keyword search data between April 2019 and December 2019, generating a list of twenty features per state. The most searched for term from each state was selected, omitting the responses that appeared consistently across states. About realtor.com® Realtor.com® makes buying, selling and living in homes easier and more rewarding for everyone. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today through its website and mobile apps is a trusted source for the information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. Using proprietary data science and machine learning technology, realtor.com® pairs buyers and sellers with local agents in their market, helping take the guesswork out of buying and selling a home. For professionals, realtor.com® is a trusted provider of consumer connections and branding solutions that help them succeed in today's on-demand world. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com.
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U.S. Homeowners Four Times as Likely to Be Equity-Rich Than Seriously Underwater
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Redfin Ranks the Hottest Neighborhoods to Watch in 2020
With a housing affordability crisis in full swing, neighborhoods with lower home prices surge in popularity SEATTLE, Jan. 28, 2020 -- The southeast states of Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Tennessee are home to half of this year's top neighborhoods to watch, according to a new report from Redfin, the technology-powered real estate brokerage. The 2020 watch list was developed by identifying the neighborhoods with the greatest year-over-year growth in listing pageviews on Redfin.com and speaking with agents about what areas are seeing rising interest from homebuyers. Relatively affordable neighborhoods dominate this year's list. Seven of the top 10 neighborhoods to watch in 2020 have median sale prices of less than $500,000; three fell below the 2019 national median of $279,900 making them "affordable" compared to other parts of the country. Half of the neighborhoods also have median sale prices that are less than their respective metro areas. "The affordability crisis has caused people seeking single-family homes to search in areas they may not have considered before," said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. "Homebuyers continue to be priced out of Washington, D.C. and New York, so you're seeing a lot of northerners moving to the southeast, but even people from as far away as California are migrating there. The overall U.S. economy is doing better, so people feel more comfortable leaving the biggest job centers for small job centers. Plus, the southeast is becoming more metropolitan, with new restaurants and amenities that cater to younger people." Corporations are also setting up shop in the southeast. In Atlanta, money manager BlackRock is building a new innovation hub, with plans to employ 1,000 people there by 2024. Microsoft is spending $23 million to expand its campus in Charlotte and a new Volvo plant is adding thousands of jobs in Charleston. The two Carolinas cities are expected to lead the nation in home-price gains this year, according to Fairweather. Charleston saw a 104% annual net increase in the number of Redfin users looking to move in during the third quarter of 2019, and Charlotte saw a 44% boost. Below is the complete list of Redfin's neighborhoods to keep an eye on this year. All statistics on median sale price, percent of homes that sold above list price, and median days on market represent the full year of 2019. 1. Willowsford, Ashburn, VA (Washington, D.C. metro) Median sale price: $918,059Median sale price for metro area: $412,433Percent of homes that sold above list price: 16.3%Median days on market: 51 "Willowsford is a relatively new development that's very popular due to its location and community amenities. Homes are large and modern, with country-chic facades," said Redfin Virginia team manager Irene De Leon. "There are swimming pools, tennis, community events, a farm, ponds, and 40-plus miles of trails. You could probably do something every day in the community if you wanted, and it all revolves around different seasons. In 15 minutes, you can get to Washington Dulles International Airport, Reston Town Center, Route 28, the Dulles Toll Road and I-66." 2. Bal Harbour, Fort Lauderdale, FL Median sale price: $747,500Median sale price for metro area: $270,000Percent of homes that sold above list price: 4.8%Median days on market: 109 "Bal Harbour is centrally located and within walking distance of the beach, which is very appealing. There's a huge plaza with high-end shops and restaurants, and very high-rated schools. It's also close to a marina, where people can dock their boats," said Redfin Miami agent Larry Kevelier. "Plus, one of the main roads that runs through the neighborhood—Collins Avenue—offers accessibility to South Beach and Aventura." 3. Wildwood, Charlotte, NC Median sale price: $181,000Median sale price for metro area: $259,900Percent of homes that sold above list price: 35.7%Median days on market: 32 "Wildwood, just 15 minutes from downtown Charlotte, is one of the few affordable remaining areas where you can find homes under $250,000. They're cute, ranch-style, brick homes, too, that aren't in cookie-cutter neighborhoods," Redfin Charlotte market manager Marcy Prentiss said. "Homebuyers have increasingly been moving east and west of Charlotte—to neighborhoods like Wildwood—instead of north, to avoid the new I-77 toll road. Plus, there's a new development under construction nearby that will include townhomes, shopping and entertainment." 4. West Arvada, CO (Denver metro) Median sale price: $376,500Median sale price for metro area: $415,925Percent of homes that sold above list price: 17.9%Median days on market: 41 "West Arvada is a wonderful place to live. It is 20 minutes away from Boulder, 20 to 25 minutes from downtown Denver and 15 to 20 minutes from downtown Golden. The schools are also very highly rated," said Redfin Denver agent Corey Keach. "We have a bustling old town area with multiple shops, breweries and restaurants as well as a new light rail station. There's a multitude of lakes, hiking and biking trails and large dog parks. You also have a head start getting to the mountains, which for a lot of my clients is a huge plus and why they have joined me on the west side." 5. Waverly Hills, Arlington, VA (Washington, D.C. metro) Median sale price: $322,500Median sale price for metro area: $412,433Percent of homes that sold above list price: 50.8%Median days on market: 6 "Waverly Hills is the neighborhood we are all looking for. It's like something from a story book, with undulating hills, mature trees and a 'front porch culture,' Redfin Arlington agent Candee Currie said. "The homes are all unique, some with updated history and others with beautiful new architecture. Neighbors know and care for each other. The community is a haven from busy traffic, but within walking distance of schools, shops, eateries, parks and every form of public transportation. It's close to D.C., the Pentagon and now Amazon HQ2—all hubs of major employment, theatre, culture and sporting events." 6. Adamsdale, North Attleboro, MA (Providence metro) Median sale price: $400,000Median sale price for metro area: $286,000Percent of homes that sold above list price: 39.5%Median days on market: 41 "Adamsdale is located in Massachusetts and borders Cumberland, Rhode Island, making it an ideal place for traveling into Providence or Boston due to the easily accessible commuter rail," said Redfin Boston agent Alysandra Nemeth. "Adamsdale is also conveniently located near major highways, shopping and amenities all while maintaining a neighborhood setting." 7. Poplar Grove, Indianapolis, IN Median sale price: $182,300Median sale price for metro area: $190,000Percent of homes that sold above list price: 28.3%Median days on market: 10 "Poplar Grove is blowing up. First-time homebuyers are moving here to start families, as it's extremely affordable and close to areas where they enjoy hanging out, like Fountain Square, Downtown Indianapolis and Irvington," Redfin Indianapolis market manager Jake Johnson said. "The city of Indianapolis has spent significant money making the southeast side of downtown more accessible, adding walking trails, multi-use projects, better roads, etc." 8. West Ridge, Woodinville, WA (Seattle metro) Median sale price: $934,997Median sale price for metro area: $562,300Percent of homes that sold above list price: 14.7%Median days on market: 36 "This area has older homes and apartment/condo complexes, which led some buyers to overlook it in the past, but with the explosion of the Woodinville wine country as well as the new Totem Lake town center, prices have shot up," said Redfin Seattle agent Michael Wyman. 9. Raleigh, Memphis, TN Median sale price: $96,450Median sale price for metro area: $185,000Percent of homes that sold above list price: 19.7%Median days on market: 39 "Raleigh's home prices are typically less than $150,000, which appeals to investors, as well as first-time buyers. It is among the least expensive neighborhoods in Memphis," said Redfin Memphis agent VanAsa Preston. "A huge percentage of Memphis's housing stock is actually rentals, and a very large portion of these rentals is owned by out-of-state investors. Many of the views on Redfin.com may actually be coming from these potential investors, as well as first-time buyers." 10. Old Town Rocklin, Sacramento, CA Median sale price: $499,995Median sale price for metro area: $410,000Percent of homes that sold above list price: 20.5%Median days on market: 46 "Old Town Rocklin was not very populated in the past and used to have a lot of vacant strip malls. Now it's the hub for the Rocklin community, with plenty of activities for families, family-owned restaurants and hip breweries," said Redfin Sacramento agent Michelle Dane. "They built a massive adventure park called Quarry Park, with ropes courses and an amphitheater for concerts in the summer. The neighborhood hosts car shows, local food trucks and festivals. They're also starting to do newer construction, and the houses tend to be a little less expensive. Old Town Rocklin rehabilitated a lot of older properties, and they typically don't have all of those additional HOA and tax costs. Plus, it's walkable and super convenient to the freeway." To read the full report, including research methodology and a list of the top three neighborhoods in many of the largest metro areas in the U.S., please visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/hottest-neighborhoods-2020. About Redfin Redfin is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 90 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has helped customers buy or sell homes worth more than $85 billion.
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A Millennial Sized Problem Stands in Front of Gen Z Homebuyers
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U.S. Housing Market Short 3.8 Million New Homes
Realtor.com sees opportunity for homebuilders; frustration over low inventory for buyers SANTA CLARA, Calif., Jan. 21, 2020 -- As the new decade begins with a strong economy and low interest rates, home buyers still face a big hurdle -- extremely low inventory. An analysis released today by realtor.com found that the 5.9 million single family homes that were built between 2012 and 2019 are simply not enough to offset the 9.8 million new households formed during that time. At the end of 2019, homebuilder confidence reached a two-decade high, driven in large part by robust economic growth. Single family home starts per 1,000 households grew from 4.6 in 2012 to 7.3 in 2019, taking the eight-year average to 6.2. And while that growth was needed, levels still remain well below the two-decade average, according to realtor.com®'s findings. Realtor.com® economists estimate that even with an above average pace of construction, it would take homebuilders four to five years to get back to equilibrium. "Simply put, new home starts are not keeping pace with demand. Homebuilders have a mountain of opportunity, but a big hill to climb," said Javier Vivas, director of economic research, realtor.com®. "The current inventory crisis and the need for 3.8 million new homes means a nearly insatiable appetite from potential buyers, especially in the lower end of the market." The 2008 financial crisis led home builders to become much more conservative -- building less and focusing on higher end homes with bigger margins. As such, the gap between inventory and demand is focused largely on entry-level and mid-range homes and is exaggerated by the fact that baby boomers are increasingly aging in place; not freeing up existing homes for new buyers to enter the market. "Large populations of renters and well-qualified potential buyers with strong incomes are waiting in the wings. Assuming the economy avoids a full-on recession and rates remain low, the window for builders remains wide open. If builders can deliver homes at adequate price points, absorption will continue to strengthen through the first half of the decade," Vivas said. Heading into the 2020s, growing demographics and strong economic fundamentals should continue to underpin home builder confidence. However, solving the home supply puzzle is more than just a game of volume, and timing can be tricky. On average, consumers need about two to three years of solid income and stability to save for a down payment. With today's strong economy and low likelihood of a downturn in the next few months, now may be the right time for builders to make a move, according to the report's findings. "It's easy to understand why builders have been cautious in an effort to avoid overbuilding, but we believe that demand for new homes will remain strong, and homebuilders could represent a bright spot for housing in the decade ahead," Vivas said. For more information, read the full report here. About realtor.com® Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search, offers the most MLS-listed for-sale listings among national real estate portals, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. Through its Opcity platform, realtor.com® uses data science and machine learning to connect consumers with a real estate professional based on their specific buying and selling needs. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is a trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com®.
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Redfin Ranks the Most Competitive Neighborhoods of 2019
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Waning Affordability Contributes to Slower Job Growth
WASHINGTON (January 15, 2020) -- Metro areas where affordability has worsened over the last five years have seen a decline in job growth during that same period. These findings come from a new National Association of Realtors® study, which examined the top 174 metro areas and ranked them based on affordability. NAR analyzed the shift in affordability ranking, considering the pace of non-farm payroll job growth in 2019 Q3 compared to average job growth from 2014 to 2018. The NAR report, "Home Affordability Index Ranking and Payroll Job Growth," found that affordability rankings declined in 81 metro areas, 34 of which saw non-farm job growth fall faster in 2019 Q3 than the national rate over the previous five years. Those 81 metro areas need more housing inventory to boost affordability, according to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. "Job growth has slowed in these areas in part because limited supply is making homes less affordable," he said. "As inventory continues to decline and affordability worsens, workers, businesses and companies are less incentivized to do business in these areas." Boise, Idaho, experienced the largest drop in affordability ranking (108th in 2014 and 153rd in 2019 Q3). From 2014 to 2019 Q3, the median sales price of single-family homes in Boise increased 75% ($172,900 in 2014; $303,100 in 2019 Q3), four times the growth rate in median family income of 18% ($62,000 to $73,101). With a steep decline in affordability, non-farm payroll employment growth slowed roughly 0.8% in 2019 Q3 from average growth during 2014 to 2018 (3.2% from 3.9%). Tampa, Fla., has also seen a rapid decline in affordability (98th in 2014; 133rd in 2019 Q3). During this same period, median single-family home prices jumped 58%, three times the growth of median family income of 19%. As affordability declined, Tampa's job growth slowed by 0.8 percentage points (2.8% vs. 2.0%). Nashville, Tenn., experienced a similar drop in affordability ranking (105th in 2014; 126th in 2019 Q3). Median single-family sales prices increased 53%, nearly double the region's median family income growth (23%). As affordability worsened, the pace of job growth was cut in half (1.9% vs 3.7%). Metro areas in the relatively affordable Midwest region were also not immune to ranking declines. Grand Rapids, Mich. (37th in 2014 to 60th in 2019 Q3); Louisville, Ky. (51st to 62nd), Indianapolis, Ind. (46th to 64th); and Columbus, Ohio (57th to 80th) all experienced drops. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Sta. Clara, Calif., is the least affordable U.S. metro region, while Anaheim-Sta. Ana-Irvine, Calif. (173rd); Los-Angeles-Long Beach Glendale, Calif. (172nd), San Francisco-Oakland, Calif. (171st), and San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif. (170th) remain among the nation's most unaffordable markets. There was no notable shift for Seattle, Wash. (164th in 2014; 164th in 2019 Q3) and Denver, Colo. (159th, 158th). In Austin, Texas, affordability ranking improved, but because it is already relatively unaffordable, the pace of job creation has slowed as well (134th, 122nd, -1.8%). Yun says worsening affordability and inventory conditions could leave some of the nation's previously fast growing metro areas unable to sustain job and economic growth. "Even fast-growing markets could be hurt and unable to further expand because of weakening affordability conditions. We must improve affordability by building more homes in line with local job market growth." Metros in Order of Affordability Rank in 2019 Q3 The metro areas with strong job growth from 2014 to 2018 that had a significant shift in affordability ranking (five or more steps) and are now experiencing slower job creation (percentage point difference) are (ranked in order of 2019 Q3 affordability): Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich. (60th in 2019 Q3 from 37th in 2014 -1.7%) Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind. (62nd from 51st, -0.9%) Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind. (64th from 46th, -0.9%) Chattanooga, Ga. (70th from 58th, -0.3%) Columbus, Ohio (80th from 57th, -1.0%) Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga. (91st from 73rd, -1.1%) Spartanburg, S.C. (96th from 83rd, -0.4%) Pensacola, Ferry Pass-Brent, Fla. (111th from 84th, -1.9%) Raleigh, N.C. (112th from 90th, -0.8%) Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond, Fla. (125th from 94th, -1.5%) Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tenn. (126th from 105th, -1.8%) Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. (133rd from 98th, -0.8%) Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla. (134th from 89th, -1.0%) Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C. (137th from 111th, -1.3%) Jacksonville, Fla. (140th from 117th, -0.8%) Salt Lake City, Utah (151st from 146th, -0.4%) Boise City-Nampa, Idaho (153rd from 108th, -0.8%) Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev. (159th from 143rd, -1.4%) Yakima, Wash. (160th from 145th, -0.6%) Eugene, Ore. (162nd from 155th, -1.9%) Salem, Ore. (163rd from 147th, -1.5%) The National Association of Realtors® is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.4 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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Buying a Home Is More Affordable than Renting in 53 Percent of U.S. Housing Markets
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Fourth Quarter Good Time to Buy and Sell Home, Realtor Survey Says
WASHINGTON (January 9, 2020) -- More than half of Americans recently polled believe that now is a good time to make a home purchase, according to the latest consumer findings from the National Association of Realtors. The 2019 fourth-quarter survey revealed that 63% of people believe now is a good time to buy a home (equal to the 63% who said the same in 2019), with 33% saying they strongly believe now is a good time to buy. Moreover, as to selling, 74% of those polled believe that now is a good time to sell (identical to the percentage in quarter three). Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, said these positive sentiments can be linked to the strong job market and favorable economic conditions. "The mobility rate has been very low as many have opted to stay put for longer," said Yun. "However, this latest boost – Americans saying now is a good time to move – is good news. With mortgage rates low, the timing is indeed ideal for those who want to enter into homeownership and for those looking to move on to their next home." Respondents from the silent generation (those born between 1925 and 1945) were most likely to state that now is a good time to buy (73%), while younger boomers (those born between 1955 and 1964) also overwhelmingly viewed the market favorably in terms of now being a good time to purchase (70%). NAR's fourth quarter Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) survey found that 82% of those who earn $100,000 or more said now is a good time to sell a home, with 81% of those in the West region agreeing. "The Western region has seen home prices increase to the point that costs have outpaced income," said Yun. "So, it is no wonder that those living in the West would think that now is a perfect time to place a home on the market. California especially is seeing some of the highest prices ever." The NAR study concurrently asked about home prices over the past year. Sixty-four percent of those polled said they believe prices have increased within their communities within the last 12 months. Thirty percent answered that they believe prices have remained about the same, while only 6% believe prices have decreased over that period. Respondents were asked to share expectations of community home prices over the next six months. Forty-one percent predicted that prices will remain the same in their communities during that period, while 48% said they believe prices will rise and 11% said they expect prices to fall in the next six months. Millennials at 47% were most likely to believe prices will increase in their communities. Out of the four major regions, the South had the highest number of residents who said home prices would climb over six months. Finally, the NAR survey found that 52% of those polled believe the U.S. economy is improving. This is consistent with the third quarter of 2019. For the fourth quarter, optimism is highest among individuals who earn $100,000 compared to other income levels, as well as for those who reside in rural areas compared to other locations. Forty-seven percent of millennials said they believe the economy is improving, the lowest of all age groups. Forty-one percent of those in urban areas said they believe the economy is improving, compared to 66% in rural areas. Yun took note of the contrasts of viewpoints. "Whether it is a reflection of politics or true economic conditions, there is a difference of views between rural and urban areas," he said. About NAR's HOME Survey From October through December, a sample of U.S. households was surveyed via a random-digit-dial, including a mix of cell phones and landlines. The survey was conducted by an established survey research firm, TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. Each month approximately 900 qualified households responded to the survey. The data was compiled for this report representing a total of 2,707 household responses. The National Association of Realtors® is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.4 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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Home Purchase Sentiment Jumps
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CoreLogic Reports U.S. Overall Delinquency Rate Lowest for a September in at Least 20 Years
For the 11th consecutive month, the U.S. foreclosure rate was the lowest in at least 20 years CoreLogic, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its monthly Loan Performance Insights Report. The report shows that nationally, 3.8% of mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure) in September 2019, representing a 0.6 percentage point decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with September 2018, when it was 4.4%. As of September 2019, the foreclosure inventory rate – which measures the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process – was 0.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from September 2018. The September 2019 foreclosure inventory rate tied the prior 10 months as the lowest for any month since at least January 1999. Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To monitor mortgage performance comprehensively, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency, as well as transition rates, which indicate the percentage of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next. The rate for early-stage delinquencies – defined as 30 to 59 days past due – was 1.9% in September 2019, down from 2.2% in September 2018. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due in September 2019 was 0.6%, down from 0.7% in September 2018. The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1.3% in September 2019, down from 1.5% in September 2018. The serious delinquency rate has remained consistent since April 2019. Since early-stage delinquencies can be volatile, CoreLogic also analyzes transition rates. The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due was 0.8% in September 2019, marking a 0.4% decline compared to September 2018 when the transition rate stood at 1.2%. By comparison, in January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis, the current-to-30-day transition rate was 1.2%, while it peaked at 2% in November 2008. "The decline in delinquency rates in North and South Carolina compared with a year ago reflect the recovery from Hurricanes Florence and Michael, which hit in the autumn of 2018," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. "Shortly after a natural disaster, we tend to see a spike in delinquency rates. Depending on the extent of devastation, serious delinquency rates generally return to their pre-disaster levels within a year." No states posted a year-over-year increase in the overall delinquency rate in September 2019. The states that logged the largest annual decreases included: Mississippi (-1.1 percentage points), North Carolina (-1.1 percentage points), Louisiana (-1.0 percentage points), New Jersey (-1.0 percentage points) and South Carolina (-1.0 percentage points). In September 2019, four metropolitan areas in the Midwest and Southeast recorded small annual increases in overall delinquency rates. These metros include: Dubuque, Iowa (0.8 percentage points), Pine Bluff, Arkansas (0.6 percentage points), Dalton, Georgia (0.2 percentage points) and Eau Claire, Wisconsin (0.1 percentage points). While the nation's serious delinquency rate remains at a 14-year low, 14 metropolitan areas recorded small annual increases in their serious delinquency rates. Metros with the largest increases were Panama City, Florida (0.7 percentage points), Dubuque, Iowa (0.2 percentage points) and Pittsfield, Massachusetts (0.2 percentage points). The remaining 11 metro areas each logged an annual increase of 0.1 percentage point. "The strong labor market in the United States along with continued prudent underwriting practices for mortgage origination have combined to power favorable loan performance over the past few years," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "Unemployment reached a 50-year low in September 2019, which helped push annual delinquency rates downward for the 21st consecutive month and we expect this trend to continue as we enter into the new year." The next CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report will be released on January 14, 2020, featuring data for October 2019. For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the CoreLogic Insights Blog: www.corelogic.com/insights. Methodology The data in this report represents foreclosure and delinquency activity reported through September 2019. The data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The delinquency, transition and foreclosure rates are measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes without mortgage liens are not typically subject to foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. Approximately one-third of homes nationally are owned outright and do not have a mortgage. CoreLogic has approximately 85% coverage of U.S. foreclosure data. About CoreLogic CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), the leading provider of property insights and solutions, promotes a healthy housing market and thriving communities. Through its enhanced property data solutions, services and technologies, CoreLogic enables real estate professionals, financial institutions, insurance carriers, government agencies and other housing market participants to help millions of people find, acquire and protect their homes. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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Redfin Reveals the Housing Markets that Changed the Most This Decade
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Median Home Prices Still Unaffordable for Average U.S. Wage Earners in Q4 2019
Home Ownership Consumes 32.5 Percent of Wages in Fourth Quarter, Down From 2018; Declining Mortgage Rates and Increasing Wages Overcoming Rising Prices; Home Prices Still Less Affordable Than Historic Averages in 49 Percent of Local Markets, Down from 72 Percent a Year Ago IRVINE, Calif. - Dec. 19, 2019 -- ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation's premier property database and first property data provider of Data-as-a-Service (DaaS), today released its fourth-quarter 2019 U.S. Home Affordability Report, which shows that median home prices in the fourth quarter of 2019 were unaffordable for average wage earners in 344 of 486, or 71 percent of the U.S. counties analyzed in the report. That figure was down from 73 percent in third quarter and 75 percent from a year earlier. The report determined affordability for average wage earners by calculating the amount of income needed to make monthly house payments — including mortgage, property taxes and insurance — on a median-priced home, assuming a 3 percent down payment and a 28 percent maximum "front-end" debt-to-income ratio. That required income was then compared to annualized average weekly wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (see full methodology below). "Home prices rose across the country by 9 percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2019, and the typical home remained a financial stretch for average wage earners. However, homes were actually a bit more affordable because of declining mortgage rates combined with rising pay to overcome the continued price run-up," said Todd Teta, chief product officer with ATTOM Data Solutions. "As long as people are earning more money and shelling out less to pay off home loans, the market should remain strong with prices continuing to rise, at least in the near term. Those are big ifs, but for now this report offers some decent findings for both home seekers and home sellers." The largest populated counties where a median-priced home in the fourth quarter of 2019 was not affordable for average wage earners included Los Angeles County, CA; Maricopa County (Phoenix), AZ; San Diego County, CA; Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles) and Miami-Dade County, FL. The 142 counties (29 percent of the 486 counties analyzed) where a median-priced home in the fourth quarter of 2019 was affordable for average wage earners included Cook County (Chicago) IL; Harris County (Houston), TX; Wayne County (Detroit), MI; Philadelphia County, PA and Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), OH. Home price appreciation outpacing wage growth in 76 percent of markets Home price appreciation outpaced average weekly wage growth in 369 of the 486 counties analyzed in the report (76 percent), with the largest counties including Los Angeles County, CA; Cook County (Chicago), IL; Harris County (Houston), TX; Maricopa County (Phoenix), AZ; and San Diego County, CA. Average annualized wage growth outpaced home price appreciation in 117 of the 486 counties (24 percent), including Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles); Miami-Dade County, FL; Kings County (Brooklyn), NY; Queens County, NY and Santa Clara County (San Jose), CA. At least 30 percent of wages needed to buy a home in two-thirds of markets Among the 486 counties analyzed in the report, 311 (64 percent) required at least 30 percent of their annualized weekly wages to buy a home in the fourth quarter of 2019. Those counties that required the greatest percent included Marin County, CA (outside San Francisco) (111.2 percent of annualized weekly wages needed to buy a home); Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (103.6 percent); Santa Cruz County, CA, (outside San Jose) (103 percent); Monterey County, CA, (outside San Francisco) (88 percent) and Maui County, HI (84.9 percent). A total of 175 counties in the report (36 percent) required less than 30 percent of their annualized weekly wages to buy a home in the fourth quarter of 2019. Those counties that required the smallest percent included Baltimore City/County, MD (11.2 percent of annualized weekly wages needed to buy a home); Bibb County (Macon), GA (12.4 percent); Rock Island County (Davenport), IL (14.4 percent); Wayne County (Detroit), MI (15.2 percent) and Richmond County (Augusta), GA (15.2 percent). Fifty-three percent of markets more affordable than historic averages Among the 486 counties in the report, 256 (53 percent) were more affordable than their historic affordability averages in the fourth quarter of 2019, up from 48 percent in the third quarter of 2019 and 29 percent from the fourth quarter of 2018. Counties with at least 1 million people that were more affordable than their historic averages (indexes of at least 100 are considered more affordable compared to their historic averages) included Cook County (Chicago), IL (index of 119); Montgomery County, MD (outside Washington, D.C.) (118); New York County (Manhattan), NY (118); Suffolk County, NY (outside New York City) (114); and Fairfax County, VA (outside Washington, D.C.) (111). Counties with the highest affordability indexes were Fairfield County, CT (outside New Haven) (index of 137); Baltimore City/County, MD (135); Lake County, IL (outside Chicago) (135); Onslow County (Jacksonville), NC (134) and Atlantic County (Atlantic City), NJ (131). Counties with at least 1 million people that saw the biggest annual improvement in their affordability indexes included New York County (Manhattan), NY (index up 33 percent); Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (up 20 percent); Middlesex County, MA (outside Boston) (up 14 percent); Santa Clara County (San Jose), CA (up 13 percent) and Orange County, CA (outside Los Angeles) (up 11 percent). The biggest annual gains among other counties included Butte County, CA (north of Sacramento) (index up 39 percent); Bay County (Panama City), FL (up 26 percent); Florence County, SC (up 26 percent); Cecil County, MD (outside Wilmington, DE) (up 23 percent) and Bristol County, MA (outside Providence, RI) (up 21 percent). Forty-seven percent of markets less affordable than historic averages Among the 486 counties analyzed in the report, 230 (47 percent) were less affordable than their historic affordability averages in the fourth quarter of 2019, down from 52 percent of counties in the previous quarter and 71 percent of counties in the fourth quarter of 2018. Counties with a population greater than 1 million that were less affordable than their historic averages (indexes of less than 100 are considered less affordable compared to their historic averages) included Wayne County (Detroit), MI (index of 78); Tarrant County (Fort Worth), TX (83); Dallas County, TX (85); Oakland County, MI (outside Detroit) (86) and Travis County (Austin), TX (88). Counties with the lowest affordability indexes were Vanderburgh County (Evansville), IN (index of 69);Genessee County (Flint), MI (72); Canyon County (Nampa), ID (74); Benton County (Kennewick), WA (76) and Blount County, TN (outside Knoxville) (77). Among the counties with at least 1 million people, none saw their annual affordability indexes get worse. Counties that did see the biggest year-over-year fallback in their affordability indexes included Saint Louis County, MO (index down 16 percent); Jefferson County (Watertown), NY (down 16 percent); Saint Louis City/County, MO (down 15 percent); Jasper County (Joplin), MO (down 12 percent) and Saint Clair County, MI (outside Detroit) (down 10 percent). Report Methodology The ATTOM Data Solutions U.S. Home Affordability Index analyzes median home prices derived from publicly recorded sales deed data collected by ATTOM Data Solutions and average wage data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in 486 U.S. counties with a combined population of 235.2 million. The affordability index is based on the percentage of average wages needed to make monthly house payments on a median-priced home with a 30-year fixed rate mortgage and a 3 percent down payment, including property taxes, home insurance and mortgage insurance. Average 30-year fixed interest rates from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey were used to calculate the monthly house payments. The report determined affordability for average wage earners by calculating the amount of income needed to make monthly house payments — including mortgage, property taxes and insurance — on a median-priced home, assuming a 3 percent down payment and a 28 percent maximum "front-end" debt-to-income ratio. For instance, the nationwide median home price of $257,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 would require an annual gross income of $67,647 for a buyer putting 3 percent down and not exceeding the recommended "front-end" debt-to-income ratio of 28 percent — meaning the buyer would not be spending more than 28 percent of his or her income on the house payment, including mortgage, property taxes and insurance. That required income is lower than the $58,214 annual income earned by an average wage earner based on the most recent average weekly wage data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, making a median-priced home nationwide not affordable for an average wage earner. About ATTOM Data Solutions ATTOM Data Solutions provides premium property data to power products that improve transparency, innovation, efficiency and disruption in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation's population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes and enhances the data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 9TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include bulk file licenses, property data APIs, real estate market trends, marketing lists, match & append and introducing the first property data delivery solution, a cloud-based data platform that streamlines data management – Data-as-a-Service (DaaS).
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Could January be the New April for Home Shopping?
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Redfin Unveils the Most Bikeable U.S. Cities of 2020
SEATTLE, Dec. 4, 2019 -- Minneapolis, Portland and Chicago are the most bikeable cities in the U.S. for the second year in a row, according to a new ranking from Redfin, the technology-powered real estate brokerage. The ranking is based on data from Bike Score, a tool by Redfin company Walk Score that rates the bikeability of neighborhoods, cities and addresses. Scores are based on several factors including access to bike lanes and hilliness. Cities where daily errands can be accomplished by bike score 90 points and above, cities where biking is convenient for most trips score 70 to 89 points and cities with some bike infrastructure score 50-69 points. Below is the ranking of the top 10 U.S. cities (with populations of more than 300,000) for biking: In Minneapolis and Portland, local government has committed to creating new bike infrastructure for environmental, health, affordability and safety reasons. Minneapolis has hundreds of miles of both on-street and off-street bike lanes. The Portland bike plan, with a goal of full implementation by 2030, includes hundreds of miles of bikeways. "Fair-weather bikers like myself are out in full force during the summer months in Minneapolis, but you still see bike commuters with ski goggles year round," said local Redfin agent James Garry. "Homebuyers moving to Minneapolis from a different area are always pleasantly surprised by how easy it is to bike everywhere here. The streets have dedicated bike lanes, many of which connect to suburban trails, and a lot of companies provide locker and shower facilities for bike commuters. The city's bike culture is especially important to buyers looking at downtown condos, as they're often looking to get rid of at least one car." Portland Redfin agent Daniel Brooks said dedicated bike lanes throughout the city and the Tilikum Crossing Bridge, a car-free bridge for use by cyclists, pedestrians and public transit, contribute to the area's bike culture. "We live in a relatively small area that makes for a short bike commute to work," Brooks said. "I've worked with a lot of clients who buy homes on the east side of Portland and bike to work downtown over the Tilikum bridge. We're also seeing more newly built condos with limited parking, which encourages people to ditch their cars and rely on bikes." Top 5 Bike Score increases St. Louis experienced the biggest increase in its Bike Score from 2018, up nine points to 62. It's followed by Long Beach, CA, up eight points to 69. "Long Beach added several new bike lanes to its city streets in the last few years and divided the beach path so there are designated lanes for bikers and pedestrians. The path runs along a white sand beach, providing direct access to the Pacific Ocean and the city's popular Belmont Veterans Memorial Pier," said local Redfin agent Costanza Genoese Zerbi. "Although there has been some controversy around adding bike lanes to crowded city streets—some people believe they can cause congestion and safety issues—I count myself among Long Beach residents who take advantage of the sunny Southern California weather and the bike paths." After Long Beach come Corpus Christi, TX (up 8 points to 49); Pittsburgh (up 6 points to 57) and Memphis (up 6 points to 44). To read the full report, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/most-bike-friendly-cities-usa-2020. For Redfin's ranking of the most bikeable Canadian cities of 2020, visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/most-bike-friendly-cities-canada-2020. About Redfin Redfin is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 85 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has closed more than $85 billion in home sales.
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Expect Continued Economic Growth, Slower Real Estate Price Gains and Small Chance for Recession in 2020, According to Group of Top Economists
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NAR Identifies 10 Markets Expected to Outperform Over the Next Three to Five Years
WASHINGTON (December 11, 2019) -- The National Association of Realtors identified 10 markets expected to outperform over the next three to five years. In alphabetical order, the markets are: Charleston, South Carolina Charlotte, North Carolina Colorado Springs, Colorado Columbus, Ohio Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas Fort Collins, Colorado Las Vegas, Nevada Ogden, Utah Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, North Carolina Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida "Some markets are clearly positioned for exceptional longer-term performance due to their relative housing affordability combined with solid local economic expansion," said NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Drawing new residents from other states will also further stimulate housing demand in these markets, but this will create upward price pressures as well, especially if demand is not met by increasing supply." NAR identified the top 10 metro areas based on a myriad of factors, including domestic migration, housing affordability for new residents, consistent job growth relative to the national average, population age structure, attractiveness for retirees and home price appreciation, among other variables. "Potential buyers in these 10 markets will find conditions especially favorable to purchase a home going into the next decade," said NAR President Vince Malta, broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco, CA. "The dream of owning a home appears even more attainable for those who move to or are currently living in these markets." Strong job growth is one factor driving up prices in these markets, with payroll employment rising about 2.5% annually in the last three years, higher than the national rate of 1.6%. In Ogden, Las Vegas, Dallas, and Raleigh, job growth rose nearly 3%. Movers flock to these markets at higher rates than the average of the 100 largest U.S. metro areas. In Colorado Springs, recent movers accounted for 21% of the total population, followed by Fort Collins at 17% and Las Vegas at 16%. These areas attract various age groups. For example, 11% of the people who moved to Tampa were 65 years and older, while 54% of recent movers in Durham were between the ages of 18 and 34. In most of these metro areas, about half of recent movers who are renting can afford to buy a home in those respective markets when compared to the nation's 100 largest metro areas. Homeownership rates in these markets are expected to increase due to the relative affordability. To view NAR's Top 10 Outperforming Markets report, visit https://www.nar.realtor/reports/top-ten-outperforming-metro-markets-report The National Association of Realtors® is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.4 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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Brian Buffini Reveals 2020 Real Estate Market Outlook
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Curious Case: A U.S. Housing Market No One Saw Coming
November inventory drops 9.5 percent year-over-year; homes priced below $200,000 decreased by a substantial 16.5 percent SANTA CLARA, Calif., Dec. 9, 2019 -- What a difference a year makes. In November 2018, higher mortgage rates and increasing inventory characterized the U.S. housing market. This November, the number of homes for sale fell nearly 10 percent year-over-year in a market where low interest rates are spurring increased demand, according to the November 2019 Housing Trends report released today by realtor.com®. "As millennials -- the largest cohort of buyers in U.S. history -- embrace homeownership and take advantage of this year's unexpectedly low mortgage rates, demand is outstripping supply, causing inventory to vanish," according to realtor.com senior economist, George Ratiu. "The housing shortage is felt acutely at the entry-level of the market, where most millennials are looking to break into the market for their first home." Ratiu added, "The issue is further compounded by the fact that sellers tend to be more reluctant to list during the colder time of year when the market typically makes a seasonal slowdown." Based on realtor.com's listing data, the shortage of available homes for sale is accelerating. Overall, inventory declined 9.5 percent in November, compared to October's drop of 6.9 percent. November's inventory declines amounted to a loss of 131,000 listings nationwide, compared to this time last year. In the nation's 50 largest metros, inventory declined by 8.8 percent year-over-year. Additionally, the volume of new listings hitting the market has decreased by 7.7 percent since last year, adding to the nation's inventory woes. Finding an affordable home still remains one of the largest obstacles to homebuyers, and is predicted to continue to be a problem for many buyers heading into 2020. The inventory of homes priced below $200,000 decreased by a substantial 16.5 percent year-over-year in November, up from the 15.2 percent decrease seen in October. Inventory decreases were the norm across all price points in November. Mid-tier inventory priced between $200,000 and $750,000 also decreased by 7.4 percent year-over-year compared to October's year-over-year drop of 4.3 percent, while high-end inventory priced above $1 million decreased by 1.7 percent year-over-year, compared to October's year-over-year increase of 1.3 percent. "The inventory decreases seen across all value ranges could in part be attributed to a spill-over effect, as the lack of inventory has pushed buyers up the price chain to stretch their budgets and search for homes above their initial price target," Ratiu noted. The metros with the sharpest drops in inventory were San Diego (-28.1 percent); Phoenix (-24.1 percent); and Rochester, N.Y. (-22.4 percent). Only four of the 50 largest metros saw inventory increase year-over-year. The largest inventory increases were in Las Vegas (+14.4 percent); Minneapolis (+11.5 percent); and San Antonio, Texas (+7.2 percent). Facing even fewer options than last year, eager buyers are acting quickly to close on the few homes that are currently available. During November, home sold in an average of 70 days nationally, two days more quickly than last year. Raleigh, N.C.; Hartford, Conn.; and Birmingham, Ala.; saw the largest declines in days on market with properties spending 10, 10, and 9, fewer days on the market than last year, respectively. Conversely, properties in some of metros found homes sitting on the market longer. Homes in Los Angeles; San Jose, Calif. and Las Vegas sold 20, 12, and 10 days more slowly than last year, respectively. Meanwhile, the national median home price has yet to adjust to the recent inventory declines after a multi-month run up in inventory earlier this year. The median U.S. listing price grew by only 3.6 percent year-over-year, to $309,000 in November, which is less than the 4.3 percent year-over-year increase seen last month. However, of the 50 largest U.S. metros, 43 saw year-over-year gains in median listing prices. Los Angeles (+16.6 percent); Rochester, N.Y. (+12.8 percent); and Birmingham, Ala. (+12.3 percent); saw the highest year-over-year median list price growth in November. Conversely, the steepest price declines were seen in Louisville, Ky. (-4.0 percent); Minneapolis (-2.0 percent); and Houston (-1.6 percent). Metros Seeing the Largest Declines in Inventory   About realtor.com® Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search, offers the most MLS-listed for-sale listings among national real estate portals, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. Through its Opcity platform, realtor.com® uses data science and machine learning to connect consumers with a real estate professional based on their specific buying and selling needs. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is a trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com.
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Home Sellers Will Remain on the Sidelines in 2020
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Redfin Predicts Homebuyers Will Have Fewer Options, Bidding Wars Will Rebound in 2020
Charleston and Charlotte will lead the nation in home-price growth as more people and employers move to affordable Southeast cities SEATTLE, Nov. 25, 2019 -- The housing market will be more competitive in 2020 as the cooldown that began in the second half of 2018 comes to an end, according to new predictions released by Redfin, the technology-powered real estate brokerage. "Low mortgage rates started to revitalize the market at the end of this summer, but we won't see their full impact on demand for housing until next year," said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather, who authored the report. "In 2020, buyers will have fewer homes to choose from than they have in five years. But the return of bidding wars is good news for sellers who may have been holding out this year as the market stabilized. The competition and faster price growth will tempt more homeowners and builders to list homes, which will help improve the balance between supply and demand by the end of the year." Redfin's 2020 housing market predictions: Bidding wars will rebound thanks to low mortgage rates and a lack of homes for sale Low mortgage rates will continue to strengthen homebuying demand, but due to a lack of new homes for sale and homeowners staying put longer, there will be fewer homes on the market in 2020 than in the past five years. More demand and less supply mean bidding wars will rebound in the first quarter. Redfin expects about one in four offers to face bidding wars in 2020 compared to only one in 10 in 2019. This increase in competition will push year-over-year price growth up to 6% in the first half of the year, considerably stronger than the 2% growth seen in the first half of 2019. Supply and demand will become more balanced later in the year as more listings of new and existing homes hit the market and price growth will moderate to 3%. 30-year fixed mortgage rates will stabilize at 3.8% Throughout 2020, 30-year fixed mortgage rates will remain low, hovering around 3.8%. Faced with slowing economic growth, the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low. Although the housing market is strong, weakness in other sectors, like manufacturing, is pulling down on the economy. Because investors are already bracing for the possibility of a recession, Redfin doesn't expect mortgage rates to fall much lower than 3.5% in 2020 even if the economy weakens. If the economy strengthens, Redfin expects mortgage rates to stay below 4.1%. For the first time, Hispanic Americans will gain more wealth from home equity than white Americans In the next decade, Hispanic Americans will, for the first time, gain more home equity than white Americans. That's because the majority of new homeowners are Hispanic, and home values in Hispanic neighborhoods are increasing faster than in white neighborhoods. There are more Hispanic homeowners in Texas than in any other state, and Texas cities are likely to experience strong gains in home values over the next decade as people move here from more expensive places like San Francisco and Los Angeles. Over time, this will improve economic equality for Hispanic Americans. Climate change will become a bigger financial factor for homebuyers and sellers In 2020, homebuyers and sellers will take the consequences of climate change into account when deciding to buy. The financial costs of climate change are already becoming more tangible as fire and flood insurance premiums rise. Over the next decade, higher insurance premiums in high-risk areas will make housing even less affordable to more people. And in areas with the highest risk, insurers may stop providing insurance altogether, which means it will be nearly impossible to secure a mortgage in those areas. Charleston and Charlotte will lead the nation in home price growth Affordable Southeast cities like Charleston and Charlotte are attracting an increasing number of migrants from expensive cities, which will drive up home price growth in these areas. Charleston saw a 104% annual increase in the number of Redfin users looking to move in, relative to the number of users looking to move out, in the third quarter of 2019, and Charlotte saw a 44% increase. Migrants are attracted to the growing economies of Charleston and Charlotte—Microsoft is spending $23 million to expand its Charlotte campus, and in Charleston, the new Volvo plant is adding thousands of jobs. More city streets will become car-free In 2020, more cities will favor green modes of transit and actively discourage driving. Some cities already have plans in the works—San Francisco's Market Street will transform into a car-free corridor in 2020, and New York City drivers will have to pay to drive into the heart of the city beginning in 2021. In cities that become less car-friendly, those that frequently spend time in the city-center will place more value on a commute that doesn't require a car and move to either a walkable city-center or close to public transit. Meanwhile, some people will choose to avoid the city-center altogether and put a higher value on suburbs where they can work, play and live. To read Redfin's full predictions, please click here. To find out which of the predictions come true and which turn out to be incorrect, follow the Redfin Blog for real-time research on the housing market. About Redfin Redfin is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 85 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has closed more than $85 billion in home sales.
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Home Prices Rise Annually Across Most Opportunity-Zone Redevelopment Areas
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Millennials Still Want Single-Family Homes, Even if it Means a Long Commute
The price premium for single-family homes over condos is increasing in affordable inland areas and declining in expensive areas SEATTLE, Nov. 21, 2019 -- More than 90% of millennial homebuyers would choose a single-family home over an equal-priced unit in a triplex with a shorter commute, according to a new report from Redfin, the tech-powered real estate brokerage. "Even as we've seen a revival in many urban neighborhoods, the American ideal of a detached home with a white picket fence and a private lawn doesn't appear to be changing—at least for the time being," said Redfin chief economist, Daryl Fairweather. "While some cities and states like Minneapolis and Oregon are aiming to create more affordable multi-family housing options by eliminating single-family zoning, as long as Americans are willing to pay a premium for detached homes, developers are likely to continue building them." The August 2019 survey asked more than 1,400 U.S. residents who are thinking of buying or selling a home in the next year to choose a home based on the following hypothetical situation: "You find a single-family home with a backyard for the same price as a unit in a triplex (a building with three attached homes). The triplex is smaller, but meets your space needs, and has a shared backyard and significantly shorter commute. Assume the school quality and safety ratings are identical." The report breaks down the results both by age and geography. 89% of homebuyers would prefer a single-family home with a backyard over a unit in a triplex with a shorter commute. Among millennials, 93% would choose a single-family home, as would the vast majority of all other age groups over 25. Broken down by region, we found that regardless of where people live within the U.S., more than 85% of homebuyers and sellers prefer single-family homes over a unit in a triplex with a shorter commute. The price premium for single-family homes over condos is declining in expensive areas and increasing in affordable inland areas. Nationwide, the price premium for single-family homes over comparable condos—those with similar square footage, number of bedrooms and bathrooms and location—was 16% in 2019, barely changed from 15% in 2013. While the nationwide premium has remained flat, the price premium for single-family homes over condos has generally declined since 2013 in expensive metros like San Jose (single-family homes sell for 25% more than comparable condos, down from 31% in 2013) and Los Angeles (19% premium, down from 27%). At the same time, price premiums have risen in more affordable areas like Las Vegas (17% premium, up from 10%) and Birmingham (29%, up from 15%). "Homebuyers are more willing to settle for a condo or another unit with shared walls if the home itself isn't the defining feature of why they're choosing a city," said Fairweather. "In a sprawling place with an emphasis on private homes like Houston or Las Vegas, people may actually be moving there because there are plenty of affordable, large single-family homes where they can raise a family." Redfin.com users' home search behavior shows more openness to single-family alternatives now compared to 2012. When searching for homes on Redfin.com, 33% of users limited their searches to single-family homes (meaning the searcher excluded condos and townhomes) in the third quarter of 2019, down from 41% in the first quarter of 2012. That decline could reflect the pressure high home prices have been putting on buyers in the last few years. As homebuyers contend with high home prices, they may be more willing to compromise and buy a home with shared walls. Homebuyers want single-family homes, but not necessarily large ones. Although our research indicates that most homebuyers prefer single-family homes, the size of those homes has recently started trending downward after years of going up. The median home size in the U.S. in 1975 was 1,535 square feet. It peaked at 2,467 square feet for the typical home in 2015 and has dropped since then to 2,386 square feet in 2018. To read the full report, complete with metro level data, charts and methodology, please click here. About Redfin Redfin is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 90 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has helped customers buy or sell homes worth more than $85 billion.
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Homeowners are Staying in Their Homes Five Years Longer Than in 2010
Increased home tenure leaves first-time homebuyers with fewer options SEATTLE, Nov. 4, 2019 -- The typical American homeowner has spent 13 years in their home, up from eight years in 2010, according to a new report from Redfin, the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Median home tenure increased in all of the 55 metros Redfin analyzed, leading to decreased inventory available for first-time homebuyers in many places. Homeowners have been in their homes the longest in Salt Lake City, Houston, Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Dallas, with homeowners in those metros staying in their homes for more than 20 years on average. "In Dallas, there are many neighborhoods that were built in the 1950s and 1960s where most of today's residents are still the original homeowners," said Dallas Redfin agent Christopher Dillard. "Because prices have been going up, and folks are gaining more and more equity, it's hard to justify selling when there aren't many if any affordable options." Many local governments have put policies in place that reduce property tax burdens for senior citizens, which have made it more affordable for older people to stay in their homes longer. In Texas, where homeowners tend to stay put the longest, homeowners over the age of 65 have the option to defer property taxes until the home is sold. Aging in place has reduced the number of homes for sale Homeowners age 67 to 85 are remaining homeowners longer, causing a shortage of 1.6 million homes, according to a report by Freddie Mac. In San Francisco, the median homeowner has been in their home for 14 years, compared to only 10 years in 2010. At the same time, there are about half as many homes for sale in San Francisco than there were in 2010, and the homes that are for sale are more expensive. The median home price has more than doubled in San Francisco since 2010. That's in part because older San Franciscans who own affordable homes are the ones staying put. In San Francisco, the median Redfin Estimate for homes where the resident hasn't changed in over 20 years is about $122,000 lower than the median Redfin Estimate for homes where the resident has changed in the last five years. That means there are fewer affordable homes for sale for first-time homebuyers, making a market more competitive. In Salt Lake City, where the median home tenure is the highest, the number of homes for sale has declined 59 percent from 2010 to 2019. That has led to a situation where current homeowners are further locked in place because they find it too difficult to sell and buy a home at the same time. "I have a client right now in West Valley who wants to move into the city in a more walkable, higher priced neighborhood," said Salt Lake City Redfin agent Daniel Lopez. "They would need to sell to buy, but are worried about making a competitive offer when they still need to sell their current home. I rarely see offers with home sale contingencies accepted in Salt Lake City because the market is competitive." Homeowners who already live with walkable access to amenities like schools, parks and shops are more likely to stay put in homes. And when homeowners stay put that means fewer homes are for sale. In zip codes with above-average Walk ScoreⓇ ratings for their metro, the median home tenure is 11 months longer and there is more competition for the homes that are listed with homes staying on the market eight fewer days compared to zip codes with below-average Walk Score ratings. That means first-time homebuyers who are still looking to own a home and start a family are relegated to neighborhoods in less walkable exurbs on the outskirts of town. Below is the median home tenure data for each metro included in Redfin's analysis. To read the full report, please visit: click here. About Redfin Redfin is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 85 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has closed more than $85 billion in home sales. For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com.
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Trick or Treat: Nearly 60 Percent of People Who Have Lived in a Haunted House Said They Found Out after Moving In
Thirty-seven percent knew it was haunted before and moved in anyway SANTA CLARA, Calif., Oct. 23, 2019 -- Nearly 60 percent of people who have lived in a haunted house didn't know it was haunted before they moved in, according to the realtor.com fourth annual Haunted Real Estate Report, which was released today. The findings, which might cause a fright, begs the question: would you consider living in a haunted home? The survey of 1,000 people across the United States was conducted earlier this month by Toluna Research through online interviews. Here are some of the spooky findings: Forty-three percent of respondents may have had a ghost as a roommate According to the survey, 58 percent of respondents said they have never lived in a haunted home, 23 percent of respondents said they have lived in one, while 20 percent think they may have lived in a haunted home. Of those who felt certain that they lived in a haunted house, 58 percent had no idea it was haunted before moving in and 37 percent knew it was and decided to go for it anyway. Five percent said maybe. Strange noises and shadows are the most common spooky happenings So what made them think it was haunted? Sixty-five percent of those surveyed said strange noises in the house made them think it was haunted. Fifty-two percent said strange shadows in the house, followed by 48 percent who said items moved on their own, 47 percent said certain rooms felt haunted, 46 percent said they would feel touched, and 44 percent said their home had hot and cold spots. "Moving into a new home is a really exciting time, but finding out that your new abode has an unwanted guest can definitely put a damper on the celebration," according to Nate Johnson, chief marketing officer at realtor.com®. "We conduct this survey annually and it's always interesting to see the results. This year, we were surprised by how many people had unknowingly moved into a haunted house at some point in their lives, and even more so by how many people knew and decided to move in regardless." Majority of people prefer to live ghost free When asked if they would ever consider moving into a haunted house, 54 percent of respondents said there was no way. Twenty-one percent were prepared to dust off the ole' Ghostbusters costume and brave whatever spooky happenings might be plaguing the house, while 21 percent were on the fence and responded with "maybe." Interestingly, survey responses were not that different even if the home buyer didn't actually buy the home. When asked what they would do if they inherited a haunted home, 51 percent of respondents said they would take the money and run by selling it immediately. Just under a quarter -- 23 percent -- would try to flush the ghosts out with a new kitchen or floors by renovating the home. Twenty percent of these brave souls are willing to take the risk and would simply move into their new abode, while 6 percent aren't taking any risks for themselves or others -- they'd tear the place down. But respondents don't mind a neighborhood ghoul While the majority of respondents were against the prospect of choosing to live in a haunted house, the survey found they were much more amenable to living next to one, rather than in one. Nearly 43 percent of respondents were willing to live next to a house they believed was haunted, compared to the 21 percent that would actually be willing to live in one. Still, 31 percent have seen the movies and they just aren't willing to take the risk of living next to a house they believed was haunted. About realtor.com® Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search, offers the most MLS-listed for-sale listings among national real estate portals, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. Through its Opcity platform, realtor.com® uses data science and machine learning to connect consumers with a real estate professional based on their specific buying and selling needs. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is a trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com.
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Migration Trends Reach Record High as 26% of Home Searchers Look to Change Metros
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CoreLogic Releases Most Recent HPI Forecast Validation Report
Analysis shows 16 metros had forecasts with less than a 1% difference from actual values CoreLogic, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its latest CoreLogic HPI Forecast Validation Report that compares its 12-month CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) Forecast to the actual CoreLogic Home Price Index. The report compares the changes in national and key metro-level forecasts made in June 2018 to the actual HPI index, which includes data through June 2019. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. National values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighing indices according to the number of housing units for each state. Published every six months, the Forecast Validation Report is designed to provide transparency into CoreLogic forecasting abilities. The report showed: Sixteen large metros had forecasts with less than a 1% difference from actual values, including the Phoenix, Houston and Milwaukee metros all coming in within 0.3%. The top 10 major metros all had forecasts within 0.5% of actual values. The national forecast prediction of a 5.7% increase was within 2.4% of the 3.3% increase of the HPI for the 12-month period ending in June 2019. Long-term affordability concerns, coupled with consumer sentiment about the general economic climate along with other economic factors caused actual home prices to increase at a slower rate. The most accurate metro-level forecast was for the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ area, which at 5.9% came on target of the actual HPI increase of 5.9%. The widest metro gap was in the San Jose, California metro areas, with a 13% over-estimation of actual increase. CoreLogic noted that the variance in this under-valued metro was mainly due to a concern over long-term affordability. Severe inventory shortages and rising interest rates impacted the forecasts of several metros - including the Chicago and San Francisco areas - reflecting the overall market volatility of the past 12 months. Slowing home price appreciation across many markets over the last 12 months caused much more volatility in housing markets than has been observed over the last three years. "The latest HPI Forecast Validation report continues to demonstrate why CoreLogic is the gold standard when it comes to home price forecasting," said Ann Regan, executive, product management for CoreLogic. "While our national forecast results reflect the difficulties of forecasting in an extremely volatile market, our forecasts were still able to provide accurate, region-specific forecasts for major metro areas, providing HPI clients with the reliability they need in the current market." About CoreLogic CoreLogic, the leading provider of property insights and solutions, promotes a healthy housing market and thriving communities. Through its enhanced property data solutions, services and technologies, CoreLogic enables real estate professionals, financial institutions, insurance carriers, government agencies and other housing market participants to help millions of people find, acquire and protect their homes. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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Locations Close to Public Transit Boost Residential, Commercial Real Estate Values
New Joint APTA and NAR Study Examines the Relationship between Real Estate Value and Public Transportation in Seven U.S. Metropolitan Regions WASHINGTON (October 14, 2019) -- Neighborhoods located within a half-mile of public transit services outperformed those in areas farther from public transit based on a number of factors, according to a report released today by the American Public Transportation Association and the National Association of Realtors®. "The Real Estate Mantra – Locate Near Public Transportation" highlighted the critical role public transportation plays in determining real estate values, revealing that commercial and residential real estate market sales thrive when residents have mobility options close by. The report explored seven metropolitan regions – Boston; Hartford; Los Angeles; Minneapolis-St. Paul; Phoenix; Seattle; and Eugene, OR – that provide access to heavy rail, light rail, commuter rail and bus rapid transit. Residential properties within these areas had 4-24% higher median sale prices between 2012 and 2016, the report found. Commercial property near public transit also witnessed value gains in the studied cities, where four of the regions saw median sales prices per square foot increase between 5-42%. Transportation costs in transit-oriented areas are significantly lower than in other regions, with an average annual savings of $2,500 to $4,400 for the typical household. One in four households in close proximity to transit does not own a vehicle, according to the study. The seven sample areas were examined by residential and commercial sales performance, rent, neighborhood characteristics, local government interventions and housing affordability. "Public transit's benefits go beyond moving people from point A to point B," said APTA President and CEO Paul P. Skoutelas. "Public transportation is a valuable investment in our communities, our businesses, and our country. Public transportation gets people to jobs and educational opportunities and helps businesses attract employees and customers." "Access to public transportation is an extremely valuable community amenity that increases the functionality and attractiveness of neighborhoods, making nearby communities more desirable places to live, work and raise a family," said NAR 2019 First Vice President Charlie Oppler, who spoke at Monday's press conference along with 2019 New York State Association of Realtors® President Moses Seuram. "The results of our report, conducted over multiple years alongside the American Public Transportation Association, should reiterate to policymakers at all levels of government the importance of investing in modern, efficient infrastructure that facilitates growth and helps our nation keep pace in a rapidly evolving world." Neighborhoods with high-frequency public transportation are in high demand. While property values and rents have risen, contributing to healthy local economies, the rapidly increasing demand for housing near public transit has resulted in constrained housing supplies. "As the conversation surrounding housing affordability continues, public transportation agencies are critical allies in working with elected officials and community leaders in the effort to increase housing opportunities and maximize value around stations," said Skoutelas. To read the full study, visit: NAR.realtor/transportation-and-infrastructure.
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Redfin and LinkedIn Reveal the 5 Best Emerging Tech Hubs for Software Engineers to Buy a Home
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Rising Financial Wealth Boosts Demand for Vacation Homes
WASHINGTON (October 10, 2019) – Increased financial wealth and low mortgage rates boosted the demand for and price of vacation homes, according to the National Association of Realtors® 2019 U.S. Vacation Home Counties Report. Between 2013 to 2018, the median sales price in vacation home counties increased at a slightly higher pace of 36% compared to the pace of increase of all existing and new homes sold, at 31%. Median price increases occurred across both expensive and inexpensive areas. The counties with the highest price increases during this five-year span were in three states: Pennsylvania, which includes Pike and Monroe counties; Wisconsin, which contains Price and Washburn counties; and Massachusetts, which includes Nantucket. Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, says the present figures are telling, especially when compared to data from 10 years prior. "As of 2018, household net worth reached an all-time high of $100.3 trillion – that's nearly double from a decade ago when wealth declined during the recession. Some of this tremendous growth in wealth, although concentrated, increased demand for vacation homes." Although most homebuyers purchase their residence with an intent to use the property as a primary home, that is not the case for all buyers. In fact, a portion of homeowners purchase a second home expecting to use it as a general family vacation spot, as a tenant rental, a means to gain equity, or – upon retirement – a future primary residence. The NAR report uses the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey data to examine "vacation home counties." These areas are counties where the vacant housing for seasonal, recreational or occasional use, made up 20% or more of the county's total housing stock. Of 3,141 counties, 206 counties (6.6%) were identified as vacation home counties. Additionally, NAR identified the most and least expensive and affordable vacation home counties, and exactly who is able to afford to purchase a second home. Top Vacation Home Counties According to the NAR report, the top 26 vacation home counties – the counties with the largest percentages of vacant seasonal, recreational, or occasional use housing units – include those with nationally-known sites, as well as local destinations. Though less populated, this group includes a large number of counties along northern Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Leading the list are counties in Massachusetts (Nantucket and Dukes, 56%; Barnstable, 41%), New Jersey (Cape May, 51%), Colorado (Grand, Summit Eagle, Jackson and Pitkin, 51%), Wisconsin (Vilas, Lincoln, Langlade, Forest and Oneida, 43%), and Michigan (Roscommon, Ogemaw, Gladwin, Iosco and Arenac, 42%). "Some people may visualize the common popular vacation destinations in the U.S. when considering a vacation home, such as counties in Florida or California," says Yun. "And although those locations have their share of vacation properties, we see that some homeowners prefer some of the other counties, including those in Massachusetts and New Jersey. These areas are often known for harsh weather conditions, but are popular nonetheless." Some other notable vacation home counties are found in Maine, Pennsylvania, New York, New Hampshire, Maryland, Delaware, North Carolina, Vermont, Florida, California, Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, Idaho and Oregon. Most Expensive Vacation Home Counties The areas identified as the top 25 most expensive vacation home counties included many well-known summer and winter getaways. Using Black Knight property records data, Nantucket, Mass. emerged as the most expensive vacation home county in 2018, with the median sales price at $1 million. Following were other counties in Massachusetts, including Dukes, a portion of which includes Martha's Vineyard. Other places of note were Colorado, which contains counties like Pitkin, Eagle, Summit and Grand that are popular Rocky Mountain summer and winter destinations; Florida, which includes Monroe and Collier, known respectively for the Florida Keys and Naples; California, which contains the counties of Mono, Alpine and Inyo, among others, all of which are near Yosemite National Park; and Arizona, which includes Coconino county, home of part of the Grand Canyon. Taking into account the 2018 median sales price and the income of a typical family in the top 25 most expensive areas, the typical family – that is, a family earning the median income only – would be unable to afford to purchase a home in these counties. Least Expensive Vacation Home Counties Data from Black Knight property records showed that the median price for a vacation home was usually less than $100,000. The most inexpensive vacation home counties were found in Maine (Aroostook, Piscataquis, Somerset, Franklin, Oxford, Washington and Waldo), New York (Chenango and Franklin), Pennsylvania (McKean, Venango, Clarion, Elk, Potter, Clearfield and Jefferson), Missouri (Miller), and Michigan (Gogebic, Lake, Arenac, Iosco and Cheboygan). The expected annual mortgage on a 30-year mortgage with a 20% down payment for a home purchased at the median sales price is less than $5,000. Under such a scenario, the mortgage payment would account for less than 10% of the income of a typical family that purchased a vacation home in one of the top least expensive vacation destination locations. Owning a second home is more affordable for families living in these particular areas. Other Significant Findings Buyers purchasing a vacation home usually pay all-cash or opt to obtain a mortgage, and typically make a 20% down payment. Recent low mortgage rates made it more affordable to borrow to purchase a second home. Cape May, New Jersey, topped the list of vacation home counties where second home mortgages accounted for the largest share of home purchase loans. Also on that list, among other areas, was California, which has Alpine and Mono counties; New York, which has Hamilton and Delaware counties; and, among others, Colorado, which is the location of Grand and Summit counties. Most of the borrowers who obtained mortgages for second homes earned around $100,000 or more. Among borrowers for second homes, the estimated mortgage payment to income ratio ranged from 4% to 12% in the vacation home counties. The National Association of Realtors® is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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People Who Bought Homes in 2012 Have Earned a Total of $203 Billion in Equity
People who bought a home at the bottom of the market have earned a median $141,000 or 261% in home equity since 2012 SEATTLE, Sept. 26, 2019 -- People who purchased homes in 2012 have earned a total of $203 billion in home equity, according to a new report from Redfin, the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Individually, the typical homeowner who bought the year prices reached their lowest point following the Great Recession has earned $141,000, or 261 percent, in home equity. The typical home that sold in 2012 has increased $110,000 in value, from a median sale price of $210,000 in 2012 to an estimated value of $320,000 in September 2019. The typical 2012 homebuyer started off with $54,000 in home equity and has $195,000 today. The report is based on a Redfin analysis of the home equity earned from roughly 1.4 million homes purchased across 138 markets in the U.S. in 2012. "The opportunity to build wealth through home equity when prices hit their low point was available only to a fortunate subset of Americans who had enough cash for a down payment," said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. "And now many people who weren't able to buy into homeownership during that window of time find themselves on the other side of the housing market coin: Many areas are just plain unaffordable for people who don't have equity built up to trade in for a new home. And those who are waiting in the wings, hoping to buy a home when the next recession hits, probably won't be as lucky as buyers were in 2012. Even if home prices do come down slightly, the housing market won't be impacted nearly as much as it was during the Great Recession and home equity gains won't be nearly as big." The massive 12-figure total equity growth is driven by large, expensive coastal markets—mostly in California—where home values have increased by at least two-thirds and the typical homeowner has earned more than $300,000 in equity since 2012. The metros with the biggest total home equity gains in dollars are Los Angeles ($15 billion), Seattle ($8 billion) and Oakland ($7.9 billion). The list of places with the biggest percent increases in home equity includes many metros near large U.S. military bases, including Tacoma, Washington (1453%) and Virginia Beach (1333%), home to the largest concentration of military personnel outside of the Pentagon. That commonality is partly explained by the fact that a lot of homebuyers in those areas would have been able to take advantage of a loan from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (known as a VA loan) or from the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), which often have small or no down-payment requirements, meaning their home equity started out particularly low in 2012. "Just like many other places around the country, the Hampton Roads area, which includes Virginia Beach, was hit hard during the Great Recession. But because there's such a large military presence in Virginia Beach and its surrounding cities, our housing market will always be one of the most stable in the country," said local Redfin agent Jordan Hammond. "People in the military are able to obtain VA loans, and military buyers are also often able to obtain low interest rates. That turned out to be hugely beneficial for people in the area who bought homes in the wake of the recession." Ellen Campion, a Redfin agent in Tacoma, said the housing market in her area is large enough that the military population is just one of many factors that have contributed to massive home-equity growth. "Buyers were paying too much in 2005 and 2006, and once the recession hit, a lot of those people unfortunately had their homes foreclosed on," Campion said. "So during and after the recession, folks were desperate and had to sell their homes for less than what they paid, and investors and savvy homebuyers snapped them up, often with the help of FHA loans. Now we're in a situation where it's the best of all worlds for sellers who bought homes back around 2012. The Tacoma market is so hot right now that those sellers are often able to earn six figures by selling average homes." Nine of the 10 metros with the biggest median home equity growth in dollars are in California, led by San Francisco ($741,000), San Jose ($669,000) and San Rafael ($604,000). Seattle ($364,000), is the only non-California metro on the list. Compared with the metros with the highest percent equity growth, these areas all started in 2012 with high home prices, and local homebuyers likely made much higher down payment--close to 20 percent. Since then, Coastal California and Seattle have seen enormous growth in home values, which equates to huge dollar gains in equity. To read the report, including the full methodology and list of metro-level home equity data, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/home-equity-gain-after-great-recession About Redfin Redfin is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 85 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has closed more than $85 billion in home sales.
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CoreLogic Reports the Negative Equity Share Fell to 3.8% in the Second Quarter of 2019
CoreLogic, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the Home Equity Report for the second quarter of 2019. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 63% of all properties) have seen their equity increase by 4.8% year over year, representing a gain of nearly $428 billion since the second quarter of 2018. The average homeowner gained $4,900 in home equity between the second quarter of 2018 and the second quarter of 2019. States that saw the largest gains include Idaho, where homeowners gained an average of $22,100; Wyoming, where homeowners gained an average of $20,400; and Nevada, where homeowners gained an average of $16,800 (Figure 1). From the first quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2019, the total number of mortgaged homes in negative equity decreased by 7% to 2 million homes or 3.8% of all mortgaged properties. The number of mortgaged properties in negative equity during the second quarter of 2019 fell by 9%, or 151,000 homes, compared with the second quarter of 2018 when 2.2 million homes, or 4.3% of all mortgaged properties, were in negative equity. "Borrower equity rose to an all-time high in the first half of 2019 and has more than doubled since the housing recovery started," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. "Combined with low mortgage rates, this rise in home equity supports spending on home improvements and may help improve balance sheets of households who could take out home equity loans to consolidate their debt." Negative equity, often referred to as being underwater or upside down, applies to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Negative equity can occur because of a decline in a home's value, an increase in mortgage debt or both. Negative equity peaked at 26% of mortgaged residential properties in the fourth quarter of 2009, based on the CoreLogic equity data analysis, which began in the third quarter of 2009. The national aggregate value of negative equity was approximately $302.7 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2019. This is down quarter over quarter by approximately $2.6 billion, or 0.8%, from $305.3 billion in the first quarter of 2019 and up year over year by approximately $21 billion, or 7.5%, from $281.7 billion in the second quarter of 2018. "Home values have continued to rise in most parts of the country this year and we are seeing the benefit in higher home equity levels. The western half of the U.S. has experienced particularly strong gains in home equity recently," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "In July 2019, South Dakota and Connecticut were the only two states to post annual home price declines. These losses mirror the states' home equity performances during the second quarter as both reported negative home equity gains per borrower." For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the CoreLogic Insights Blog. About CoreLogic CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), the leading provider of property insights and solutions, promotes a healthy housing market and thriving communities. Through its enhanced property data solutions, services and technologies, CoreLogic enables real estate professionals, financial institutions, insurance carriers, government agencies and other housing market participants to help millions of people find, acquire and protect their homes. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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U.S. Home Flipping Returns Drop to Nearly Eight-Year Low in Q2 2019
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The "Black Friday" of Homebuying is Almost Here
The first week of Fall is the best time of the year to buy a home. It offers buyers less competition, more price reductions and greater inventory SANTA CLARA, Calif., Sept. 19, 2019 -- Many homebuyers may be ready to give up on their home search for the year, but the best time to buy a home in 2019 is the week of September 22, during which shoppers will find less competition, more price reductions and more inventory to choose from, according to new data released today by realtor.com®, the Home of Home Search. Of the 53 markets in the U.S., 41 reported the week September 22-28 as the best time to buy. According to metro level data analyzed from 2016 to 2018, there is a sweet spot in September when U.S. buyers face 26 percent less competition and there tends to be 6.1 percent more homes on the market, compared to the average week of the year. Nearly 6 percent of homes on the market go through price reductions and tend to be 2.4 percent cheaper than their peak, making this the "Black Friday" of homebuyers, only buyers won't even have to line up overnight to score on these deals. "As summer winds down and kids return to school, many families hit pause on their home search and wait until the next season to start again. With dramatically less competition, persistent buyers will feel the scales tip in their favor as eager sellers begin to cut their prices in an effort to entice a sale," said George Ratiu, senior economist of realtor.com®. "As seasonal inventory builds up and restores itself to more buyer-friendly levels, fall buyers will be in a better position to take advantage of today's low mortgage rates and increased purchasing power." Regionally, these effects are most noticeable in the West where buyers will have nearly 30 percent less competition than the average week. Listing prices are down 4 percent versus their peak and nearly 9 percent of homes will have their prices reduced. Additionally, there will be 22 percent more active listings available to buyers and homes will stay on the market nearly 38 percent longer than their peak week. All in all, this week will be a great time for western U.S. buyers to find a home. On a market by market basis, Seattle leads the nation with a 41.3 percent drop in competition compared to the average week. It is followed by Portland, Ore. (-35.5 percent); Buffalo, N.Y. (-34.6 percent); Milwaukee (-32.8 percent), and Minneapolis (-32.6 percent). This week also sees a large influx of price cuts. Nationally, nearly 6 percent of actively listed homes see their prices reduced in an attempt to sway buyers. This trend is most prevalent in Denver where 11 percent of listings have their prices reduced. Denver is followed by Salt Lake City (10.8 percent), Seattle (10.2 percent), Austin, Texas (9.9 percent) and Portland, Ore., (9.9 percent). More fresh listings entering the market also contribute to making this the best week to buy a home. With 116,000 new listings added to the national inventory, this week has 6.1 percent more listings than the average week and 76 percent more than the start of the year. Seattle leads the nation with 41 percent more listings than the average week. It is followed by Portland, Ore. (30.9 percent), San Jose, Calif. (28.6 percent), Denver (27.2 percent), and San Francisco (25.7 percent). About realtor.com® Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search℠, offers the most MLS-listed for-sale listings among national real estate portals, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. Through its Opcity platform, realtor.com® uses data science and machine learning to connect consumers with a real estate professional based on their specific buying and selling needs. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is a trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com®.
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CoreLogic Reports an 11.4% Year-Over-Year Decrease in Mortgage Fraud Risk in the Second Quarter of 2019
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Redfin Report: Rochester, Buffalo and Hartford at Least Risk of a Housing Downturn in the Next Recession
Another recession is unlikely to have a widespread impact on the real estate market, but some parts of the country are at more risk than others SEATTLE, Sept. 6, 2019 -- Rochester, Buffalo and Hartford have the lowest risk of a housing downturn in the next recession, according to a new report from Redfin, the technology-powered real estate brokerage. While the next recession is unlikely to have a large negative impact on the real estate market, some metro areas including Riverside, Phoenix and Miami have the highest risk. Since 1980, there have been five official recessions in the United States. In all but the 2007-2009 Great Recession, inflation-adjusted home prices only declined an average of 2.7 percent from the month before the recession began to the final month of the recession, according to the home price index data from Robert Shiller. With the Great Recession still fresh in Americans' memories, the idea of a housing crash is psychologically linked with an economic recession for many people. But historically, that usually hasn't been the case. The Great Recession is a major outlier in the relationship between home prices and recessions, largely because the overinflated housing market was its major cause. But the housing market, which remains strong, is unlikely to be a culprit or victim of the next recession. "Home prices are high right now, but they're high because there's not enough supply to meet demand, which means there's not a bubble at risk of bursting," said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. "Most of today's financed homeowners have excellent credit and a cushion of home equity, making them unlikely to default on their mortgage even if their weekly grocery bill grows or their stock portfolio shrinks in the next recession." Fairweather continued, "If the U.S. enters a recession in the next two years, it will likely be caused by the global trade war. U.S. industries that rely on exports, like the automotive industry and the agricultural industry, would be the most vulnerable and susceptible to layoffs. Homeowners who are laid off may not be able to continue covering their monthly mortgage payment and may be forced to sell their homes. And would-be homebuyers won't feel so confident about making a big purchase when they don't feel confident about their job security or their financial wellbeing. That could cause declines in home prices in markets whose economy depends on global trade, but home prices nationwide are likely to hold steady." Whatever does end up causing the next recession, housing markets in certain metro areas are at greater risk of negative impacts like declining prices and a glut of homes for sale. To identify the local housing markets most likely to feel adverse effects from the next recession, we looked at the following factors: Median home sale price-to-household income ratio (weight: 1.5, higher is riskier) Average loan-to-value ratio of recently-purchased homes (weight: 1.5, higher is riskier) Home price volatility, measured by the standard deviation of home prices year-to-year (weight: 1.5, higher is riskier) Share of home sales that are flips (weight: 1.5, higher is riskier since flipping can be volatile in a shaky economy) Diversity of local employment (weight: 1.0, less diversity is riskier) Share of the local economy dependent on exports (weight: 1.0, higher is riskier during a trade war) Share of local households headed by someone age 65 or older (weight: 0.5, higher is riskier) The metro area with the highest risk of a real estate dip during a recession is Riverside, California, with an overall score of 72.8 percent, followed by Phoenix (69.8%) and Miami (69.5%). The areas at most risk are many of the same regions where housing was hit hardest by the Great Recession, clustered in Southern California, the Southwest, and Florida. These are all areas where home prices tend to be more volatile than other parts of the country. This is likely due to their relatively high loan-to-value ratios, and larger share of the market that is dominated by home flippers. These markets tend to attract a lot of investor activity, which can drive prices up, leading local homeowners to take on more debt to afford homes in their area. The metro area with the lowest risk of a real estate dip during a recession is Rochester, New York, with an overall score of 30.4 percent, followed by nearby Buffalo (31.9%) and Hartford, Connecticut (33.9%). The areas with the least risk are heavily clustered in the Northeast and the Midwest. This is due to a number of factors, including more affordable home prices, less investor activity, and local economies that are less prone to volatile boom-bust swings. None of the metro areas in the top 10 with the lowest risk of a housing downturn is west of the Mississippi. The lowest score in the West was Denver, with an overall risk score of 41.5 percent, ranked 12 on the list. The sole metro on the West Coast with a risk score below 50 percent is San Francisco at 42.9 percent, which already began to slow earlier this year and therefore has less risk of a price downturn when the next recession hits. To read the full report, including the full list of metros and their relative risk of a housing downturn in the next recession, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/next-recession-housing-market. About Redfin Redfin is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 85 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has closed more than $85 billion in home sales.
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Most Areas Targeted for New Opportunity Zone Redevelopment Incentives Have Home Prices Well Below National Levels
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The Top U.S. Destinations For Movers Aren't Where You Think
Medium-sized metros offering relative affordability, strong employment and large boomer populations entice the most out-of-state buyers SANTA CLARA, Calif., Aug. 21, 2019 -- The typical home buyer only moves 15 miles from their current residence, but realtor.com's Top Moving Destinations analysis shows that metros that offer relative affordability, strong employment, and large boomer populations can entice people to pull the trigger on an out-of-state home purchase. Released today, the list is made up of mostly medium-sized markets, including: Charleston, S.C.; Boise, Idaho; Honolulu; Columbia, S.C.; Fort Myers, Fla.; Portland, Maine; Sarasota, Fla.; Greenville, S.C.; Tucson, Ariz.; and Las Vegas. Metros were ranked based on which area received the most out-of-state views on realtor.com® in the second quarter of 2019. Buyers Seek Bargains Without Going Too Far "Home prices have risen for seven consecutive years, far outpacing salary growth. Although interest rates are the lowest they have been in three years, cost has become a deal breaker for many buyers, especially in pricey West Coast metros," said realtor.com® Senior Economist, George Ratiu. "But instead of giving up on the American Dream, many buyers have decided to look for a home in medium-sized metros outside their state that offer price relief, and a similar lifestyle." Seven of the top 10 moving destinations attracted non-local buyers looking at homes with median prices 3 percent to 34 percent less expensive than their home markets, in Q2 2019. However, these destinations are not necessarily cheap; in fact, they are 16 percent higher than the national median of $315,000. But when compared to home prices in their current metro areas, they feel like a steal. For instance, Boise's median listing price of $372,500 looks more attractive compared to Los Angeles's $766,800 and Salt Lake City's $434,900. Movers are also looking to stay relatively close to home by seeking out markets that are just a quick plane ride away. Charleston, the No. 1 moving destination in America, is sought out by buyers in neighboring markets of Charlotte, N.C.; Atlanta; and New York. Boise, No. 2 on the list, is especially attractive to those in Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, and Sacramento, Calif. Booming Jobs and Low Taxes Drive Up Demand The promise of high paying jobs has always been a catalyst for buyer demand, but it's especially true for those considering relocation to a new state. According to realtor.com®'s analysis, the top 10 destinations have an average unemployment rate of 3.3 percent, which is 30 basis points lower than the national average, and 38 basis points below what out-of-state buyers encounter in their home metros. Sweetening the financial deal for out-of-state buyers are the tax incentives in these destinations. Eight of the top 10 are located in states that have lower overall tax burdens compared to the national average of 8.6, including Cape Coral-Fort Myers and North Port-Sarasota, Fla. with a 6.6 percent overall burden; Boise at 7.8 percent; and the three South Carolina metros- Charleston, Greenville and Columbia at 7.6 percent, according to WalletHub. Hot Spots Retirees and Vacationers The majority of the metros on the list are sunny locales that are popular with vacationers and retirees alike, as well as snowbirds escaping the Northern winters. In fact, the average population share of those aged 65-years and older was 19.5 percent among the top 10, compared to 16.2 nationally. The top retiree markets on this list were Sarasota, Fla.; Fort Myers, Fla.; and Tucson, Ariz. whose populations aged 65 years and older accounted for 32.3 percent, 28.7 percent, and 20.0 percent of the population, respectively. "The fact that the majority of the metros on the list are hot spots for retirees signals a shift in boomer preferences from the expensive cities where they built their careers to the more easy-going feel of vacation communities," added Ratiu. "Some of them may be initiating the purchase of their retirement home as a second home, while others may be purchasing it in their post-career stage of life." Additionally, 7.9 percent of homes sold in these markets are secondary homes, compared to the national average of just 2.7 percent. Fort Myers, Fla.; North Port, Fla.; and Tucson, Ariz. had the highest share of secondary home sales among the top 10 with 17.6 percent, 16.4 percent, and 9.2 percent, respectively. For more information, please visit: https://www.realtor.com/research/q2-2019-cross-market-demand-report/ About realtor.com® Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search℠, offers the most MLS-listed for-sale listings among national real estate portals, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. Through its Opcity platform, realtor.com® uses data science and machine learning to connect consumers with a real estate professional based on their specific buying and selling needs. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is a trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com.
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Over 1.5 Million Vacant U.S. Homes in Q3 2019 Represent 1.6 Percent of All Single-Family Homes and Condos
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U.S. Housing Market Deja Vu
Increased demand spurred by lower interest rates and fewer homes coming to market reverse 10 months of inventory growth SANTA CLARA, Calif., Aug. 13, 2019 -- Lower interest rates are prompting more buyers to come into the market, putting pressure on an already tight U.S. housing market and reversing 10 months of national inventory growth, according to realtor.com's July 2019 Monthly Housing Trend report released today. The report, which tracks key trends across the market, including the national median home price, days on market and inventory, showed flat inventory growth, which could lead to inventory declines sooner than originally predicted. In July, active listings on realtor.com were flat, following slowing growth since the start of the year. Newly listed properties were down 7 percent from a year ago. The national median home price in July was $315,000, up 5.5 percent from a year ago and a decrease from last year's year-over-year growth of 8.7 percent. Additionally, July prices were down 0.2 percent from June, marking the earliest seasonal slowdown in home prices since 2012. The median number of days on market in July was 58, the same as a year ago. "July's data highlight tension in the housing markets between buyers eager to take advantage of lower mortgage rates and potential sellers concerned about slowing price growth," said George Ratiu, realtor.com's senior economist. "The decline in newly listed properties suggests that some would-be sellers are stepping back from the market, during the peak buying season, when most people are searching for their next home." Ratiu noted that although overall housing inventory had been growing, the number of homes in the entry-level segment declined. Now that trends are shifting for the market as a whole, he said challenges for entry-level and first-time buyers are mounting, including faster price growth ahead. The inventory of properties priced below $200,000 in July decreased 9.9 percent year-over-year, while at the same time, the inventory of homes priced above $750,000 increased 6.6 percent. Competition for entry-level homes continues to be tight -- homes priced below $200,000 only spent 56 days on the market, whereas properties priced over $750,000 spent 81 days on the market. Despite these challenges, some millennials are finding success. The share of millennial mortgage originations increased to 46 percent from 43 percent last year, according to realtor.com's second quarter Generational Propensity report. The report found the median home purchased by millennials was priced at $248,000, up 5 percent year-over-year, a bigger increase than either Gen X or boomers had in home purchase price. Looking across generational cohorts, the larger gains in the price of homes purchased by millennials reflect both the intense competition at the entry-level price point and the fact that some millennials have been delaying major life milestones (e.g. starting families, forming households, having children), and are skipping the starter home to purchase larger, trade-up homes. The report also found that while Gen X and boomers have increased their down payment percentages, millennials saw the average down payment slip to 8.2 percent from 8.9 percent a year ago. This increased the size of the typical millennial loan amount to $227,000 from $215,000. Lower mortgage rates are helping to cushion the impact of buying a higher-priced home and making additional debt more affordable. The monthly mortgage amount that millennials paid on a newly purchased home fell to $1,099 from $1,131 year-over-year. About realtor.com® Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search, offers the most MLS-listed for-sale listings among national real estate portals, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. Through its Opcity platform, realtor.com® uses data science and machine learning to connect consumers with a real estate professional based on their specific buying and selling needs. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is a trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com.
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Redfin Reveals the 6 U.S. Metros Where You Can Retire by Age 40
Honolulu, Boston, and D.C. top the 6 metros where high-earning, aggressive savers can enjoy an early retirement SEATTLE, Aug. 5, 2019 -- Honolulu, Boston, and Washington, D.C., are the top metros where high-earners can retire by age 40, according to a new report from Redfin, the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Redfin determined the list of metros by calculating an estimated budget for individuals who earn a household income in the 75th percentile for their metro, start working at age 22, live in a median-priced two-bedroom condo, have average annual non-housing expenditures and save the rest. Retirees must then maintain the same cost of living by relying on compounded savings and investment accounts from age 40 until age 85. "Many people dream of retirement, especially after a grueling day at the office. But accomplishing it by age 40 can feel especially lofty, short of winning the lottery. But it's not impossible. If you want to make it happen, your best strategy is to focus your efforts on living where you can earn a high income, rather than simply a place with really cheap living expenses," said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. "Saving up for early retirement requires earning enough to afford to put away thousands of dollars each month. It takes a lot of discipline to maintain such a frugal lifestyle, especially when you can afford not to. But the payoff, for some, to retire decades early might be well worth it." Below are the six U.S. metro areas where early retirement is possible, assuming you meet the following financial criteria: 1. Honolulu, HI Median sale price of a two-bedroom condo: $425,000Total non-housing expenditures: $40,74575th percentile median household income: $184,000Estimated yearly savings needed to retire by 40: $77,806 2. Boston, MA Median sale price of a two-bedroom condo: $614,000Total non-housing expenditures: $45,30175th percentile median household income: $207,500Estimated yearly savings needed to retire by 40: $82,104 3. Washington, D.C. Median sale price of a two-bedroom condo: $325,000Total non-housing expenditures: $50,82075th percentile median household income: $207,000Estimated yearly savings needed to retire by 40: $91,494 4. Chicago, IL Median sale price of a two-bedroom condo: $220,000Total non-housing expenditures: $39,32875th percentile median household income: $152,600Estimated yearly savings needed to retire by 40: $68,222 5. Tampa, FL Median sale price of a two-bedroom condo: $142,500Total non-housing expenditures: $31,52275th percentile median household income: $115,375Estimated yearly savings needed to retire by 40: $52,522 6. Baltimore, MD Median sale price of a two-bedroom condo: $200,000Total non-housing expenditures: $45,87875th percentile median household income: $170,000Estimated yearly savings needed to retire by 40: $73,673 To read the full report, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/best-place-to-retire-early About Redfin Redfin is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 85 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has closed more than $85 billion in home sales.
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Big City Metros Fall Off Realtor.com's 2019 Hottest ZIP Codes Report
ZIP code 49505 Grand Rapids, Mich., is ranked No. 1, followed by 68144 Omaha, Neb. and 83704, Boise, Idaho SANTA CLARA, Calif., July 31, 2019 -- The hottest ZIP codes in America are on the move from big cities like San Francisco and New York to quieter metros with a more suburban feel such as Omaha, Neb. and Goffstown, N.H., according to realtor.com's 2019 hottest ZIP codes ranking released today. In its fifth annual report, five ZIP codes in up and coming neighborhoods made their debut on the list boosted by extremely low home prices and even more millennial home buyers. The 2019 hottest ZIP codes America, in rank order, are: 49505 Grand Rapids, Mich.; 68144, Omaha, Neb.; 83704, Boise, Idaho; 66203 Shawnee, Kan.; 14609 Rochester, N.Y.; 48154 Livonia, Mich.; 02176 Melrose, Mass.; 76018 Arlington, Texas; 03045 Goffstown, N.H.; and 80916 Colorado Springs, Colo. Homes in this year's top 10 sell in an average of 17 days, 40 days faster than the rest of the country and 20 days faster than their respective metros, on average. Realtor.com® users view homes in these markets 3 times more often than homes in the rest of the country and 1.9 times more often than in their respective metro areas, on average. Affordability ignites even more demand in smaller, less dense locales As buyers continue to be priced out of big cities, demand is sparking up in smaller, less dense markets where housing is more affordable. Last year, the top 10 hottest ZIP codes in America included towns on the outskirts of some of the largest, most densely populated cities in the country such as New York and San Francisco. But these markets rotated off the list this year to make way for Omaha, Neb. and Manchester, N.H. Smaller metros from previous years such as: Boise, Idaho; Kansas City, Mo. and Colorado Springs, Colo. In fact, this year's top 10 hottest markets have half of the total number of households of the market's on last year's list and 7 percent fewer households per square mile. "Even though buyers are moving to smaller markets, they are looking to retain an urban lifestyle by living closer to the city center. This tells us that today's home buyers are trying to have it all -- proximity to downtown, room to grow, and affordability -- and they're finding it outside of the biggest cities in the U.S.," said Danielle Hale, chief economist for realtor.com®. "The average commute distance from this year's hottest 10 ZIPs to their downtown area is 9 miles, which is 31 percent or 4 miles closer compared to last year's top 10." Newbie ZIPs bring new trends to the top 10 Among the top 10 hottest ZIPs in America, five are making their debut on the list this year, including: No.1 Grand Rapids, Mich. (49505); No. 4 Shawnee, Kan. (66203); No. 5 Rochester, N.Y. (14609); No. 8 Arlington, Texas (76018); and No. 9 Goffstown, N.H. (03045). Although some of the traditional drivers of market hotness are represented in these areas, there are also some emerging trends of extremely low home prices, developing local economies, and even larger populations of millennials. Affordability has been a key factor driving realtor.com®'s hottest ZIP codes for the last five years. But among 2019's new ZIPs, the trend is even more extreme. When compared to the top 10 as a whole the average median listing price for the five new ZIPs is 36 percent less expensive. They are also 32 percent less expensive than both the metro and the national median home price. Although these areas are thriving in many ways, local economic indicators signal these up-and-coming neighborhoods still have a way to go. The median income of the five newbie ZIPs is $64,000, 9 percent lower than the median of the others on the list. But their average unemployment rate is strong at 3.2 percent, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than the average of the returning ZIPs, and 0.4 percentage points lower than the national rate of 3.6 percent. The number of households in these markets is projected to grow by 4.3 percent this year, faster than the national rate of 1.1 percent, but not quite as fast as expected in the returning ZIP codes, projected to grow at a rate of 7.6 percent. Millennials have played a critical part of market hotness for some time, but their role is even larger in these new ZIPs. In fact, on average, the millennial homeownership rate in these areas is 5 percent higher than their returning counterparts and exceeds the national rate by 13 percent. Overall trends driving hotness in the top 10 Among this year's top 10 hottest markets in America, there are some consistent factors driving their popularity, including: large numbers of high earning millennials scooping up homes, relatively affordable home prices and strong local job markets. In the top 10 ZIPs, millennials' salaries are on average, 13 percent greater than the national millennial median income. They also make up the greatest share of homebuyers taking on a mortgage, averaging 39 percent. Part of the appeal of these top 10 ZIPs is their relatively affordable average home price of $272,000, well below the current national median of $316,000. Another factor contributing to these hot housing market is residents have money to spend. On average, resident incomes in each of these areas are 6.5 percent higher than the national median. Additionally, jobs are expected to grow 1.3 percent this year, exceeding the projected national growth of 1.0 percent. 2019 Hottest ZIP Codes in America 1) 49505 - Grand Rapids, Mich. – Western Michigan has once again taken the top spot on realtor.com®'s hottest ZIP codes ranking, this time with ZIP 49505. Located just north of downtown Grand Rapids, this ZIP runs along the Grand River and includes plenty of green space with the Kent Country Club, and four large parks. Its strong school system, which includes City High Middle School (GreatSchools rating of 9/10), attracts many to the family-oriented area. Housing stats: Homes in this Grand Rapids ZIP sell in 10 days on average, with a median listing price of $178,050, which is up 11.3 percent year-over-year. Millennials make up the dominant buyer segment, where they account for 48 percent of new purchase mortgages. Millennials in this Grand Rapids ZIP make slightly less than the national median for millennials at $58,667 and $62,280, respectively. 2) 68144 - Omaha, Neb. – Coming in at No. 2, ZIP 68144 is centrally located just 12 miles west of downtown Omaha, with easy access to the interstate, and borders along Zorinsky Lake. Affordable housing and high-paying jobs at companies like Berkshire Hathaway, Union Pacific Railroad, and Werner Enterprises are attracting many "boomerang buyers" back to the area after living in other more expensive parts of the country. With a solid mix of both high-end and starter homes, access to downtown Omaha, and a strong school system, which includes Harvey Oaks Elementary School (GreatSchools rating of 8/10), this area has earned its spot as one of the hottest ZIPs in the nation. Housing Stats: Homes in 68144 sell in 21 days on average, with a median listing price of $238,950, which is up 6.2 percent over last year. Millennials make up the dominant buying segment in the area, where they account for 43 percent of new purchase mortgages. Millennials in 68144 make significantly more than the national median for millennials at $73,902 and $62,280, respectively. 3) 83704 Boise, Idaho – Boise is a vibrant, active city, with a mild four-season climate that allows residents to enjoy the local mountains, rivers, and lakes year-round, while also establishing itself as a new tech hotspot. ZIP code 83704 sits on Boise's western edge and runs along Route 20. As more Californians seek lower housing costs, many are buying homes in Idaho where the sunny climate and local tech employers, such as Micron Technology, are strong draws. Boise is no stranger to realtor.com®'s Hottest ZIP Codes list, this ZIP was No. 6 in 2018. Housing Stats: Homes in 83704 sell in an average of 14 days, with a median listing price of $289,950, which is up 5.5 percent year-over-year. The dominant buyer segment in the area is slightly older at 35- to 44-years-old. However, buyers aged 25- to 34-years old still make up 28 percent of new purchase mortgages. Millennials in 83704 earn significantly less than the national median for millennials at $50,581 and $63,174, respectively. 4) 66203 Shawnee, Kan. – Sitting southwest of downtown Kansas City, Mo., on the Kansas side, is ZIP 66203 a quintessential Midwestern suburb known as "Old Shawnee." This is 66203's first appearance on the hottest markets, and it offers a walkable downtown with local shops and restaurants as well as affordable home prices. Kansas City has grown in popularity over the years due to its alluring downtown that houses museums, dining, shopping, and extensive nightlife, and 66203 is an affordable alternative to last year's No. 8 ZIP in Overland Park with even easier access to the city. Housing Stats: Homes in 66203 sell in an average of 13 days and have a median listing price of $220,050, which is up 16.4 percent year-over-year. Millennials make up the dominant buyer segment in this area, where they account for 43 percent of new purchase mortgages. Millennials in 66203 earn slightly less than the national median for millennials at $61,582 and $62,280, respectively. 5) 14609 - Rochester, N.Y. – Nestled along the southern shore of Lake Ontario and split in half by the Genesee River is the pictorial city of Rochester, which is home to ZIP 14609 -- a first timer to the list. As a booming area for both medical and education industries, 14609 draws many young professionals with its tree-lined streets, high walkability, and access to nightlife. Rochester Regional Health and the University of Rochester are two of the metro area's largest employers, but Rochester is also home to the headquarters for Wegmans Food Markets, which was ranked No. 3 on Fortune's annual "Best Companies to Work For." Housing Stats: Homes in 14609 sell in 17 days on average and have a median listing price of $125,050, which is up 13.7 percent year-over-year. Millennials make up the dominant buyer segment in the area where they account for 43 percent of new purchase mortgages. However, millennials make significantly less than the national median millennial at $44,438 and $62,280, respectively. 6) 48154 - Livonia, Mich. – A western suburb of the Motor City, Livonia combines the best parts of suburban living with close proximity to the great attractions of Detroit. ZIP 48154 offers an easy 20 mile commute to downtown destinations such as the Detroit Institute of Art and the historic Eastern Market. Livonia also is equally close to many of the major employment centers scattered throughout the broader metro area, such as the headquarters of Ford Motor Company in Dearborn, Mich. Housing Stats: Homes in 48154 sell in an average of 17 days and have a median listing price of $254,950, which is up 6.2 percent year-over-year. Millennials are the dominant buyer segment in the area where they make up 36 percent of new purchase mortgages. Millennials in this Livonia ZIP make significantly more than the national median for millennials at $96,855 and $62,280, respectively. 7) 02176 - Melrose, Mass. – Located 10 miles north of Boston is the quaint gas-lamp lined city of Melrose. Boston's abundance of universities and colleges feed the area's demand for high-paying jobs, especially in pharmaceutical and medical industries where Hallmark Health System and Melrose-Wakefield Hospital are two of the area's largest employers. A strong school system, which includes Hoover Elementary School (GreatSchools rating of 7/10), draws many to the area, but the ZIP of 02176 is beyond most first-time home buyers' budgets, so many turn to renting until they are able to afford purchasing a home. Melrose is no stranger to realtor.com®'s Hottest ZIP Codes list, it was No. 7 in 2016. Housing stats: Homes in Melrose sell in an average of 18 days and have a median listing price of $629,050, down 1.7 percent year-over-year. The dominant buyer segment remains millennials who account for 43 percent of new purchase mortgages. Millennials in this ZIP have a median income of $98,803, which is $36,523 higher than the national median millennial income of $62,280. 8) 76018 - Arlington, Texas – Sitting cozy between Dallas and Fort Worth is the thriving city of Arlington, home to this year's No. 8 hottest ZIP, 76018. This is 76018's first time making it onto realtor.com®'s hottest ZIPs list. ZIP 76018 is seven miles from Globe Life Park - home of the Texas Rangers baseball team, as well as six miles from AT&T Stadium - home of the Dallas Cowboys football team, the most valuable sports franchise in the world. Arlington ISD and the University of Texas at Arlington are two of the area's largest employers. However, ZIP 76018 is only 19 miles from Fort Worth and 25 miles from Dallas, offering a plethora of employment options to those willing to commute. Housing Stats: Homes in this Arlington ZIP sell in 20 days on average and have a median listing price of $215,050, which is up 7.5 percent year-over-year. Millennials make up the dominant buyer segment in this area where they account for 34 percent of new purchase mortgages. Millennials in Arlington also make slightly more than the national median for millennials at $64,023 and $62,280, respectively. 9) 03045 - Goffstown, N.H. – Nestled an hour and a half north of Boston and just west of Manchester, N.H. is the historic, tree-lined town of Goffstown which is home to ZIP 03045. This is 03045's first time making it onto realtor.com®'s hottest ZIP codes list. The area offers residents a close-knit community, complete with parks and outdoors space, and a strong school system which includes Goffstown High School (GreatSchools rating of 7/10). Affordable homes with access to a walkable downtown that is lined with historic brick buildings that house many of the town's restaurants and shops, make it a quintessential New England town. Housing Stats: Homes in this Goffstown ZIP sell in 22 days on average and have a median listing price of $325,050, up 4.9 percent year-over-year. Millennials make up the dominant buyer segment in this area where they account for 43 percent of new purchase mortgages. Millennials in Goffstown earn significantly more than the national median for millenials at $105,449 and $62,280, respectively. 10) 80916 - Colorado Springs, Colo. – Located 70 miles south of Denver on the eastern side of the Rocky Mountains, lies the thriving outdoor-centric city of Colorado Springs with ZIP 80916 sitting on the southeastern portion of the city. This area draws a diverse nature-loving crowd with its affordable housing compared to its sister-city to the north, Denver. Colorado Springs is replete with local breweries and tasting rooms as well as many boutique restaurants that cater to the area's healthy living lifestyle. Major employers for the area include the United States Air Force Academy, Fort Carson, and nearby Peterson Air Force Base. Housing Stats: Homes in this Colorado Springs ZIP sell in an average of 21 days and have a median listing price of $245,050, which is up 2.5 percent year-over-year. Millennials make up the dominant buyer segment in the area, where they account for 34 percent of new purchase mortgages. Millennials in Colorado Springs make significantly less than the national median for millennials at $47,819 and $62,280, respectively. About realtor.com® Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search℠, offers the most MLS-listed for-sale listings among national real estate portals, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. Through its Opcity platform, realtor.com® uses data science and machine learning to connect consumers with a real estate professional based on their specific buying and selling needs. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is a trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com.
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Redfin Report: Racial Gaps in Homeownership, Home Equity and Wealth Widened during the Historic Decade-Long Economic Expansion
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Redfin Migration Report: Phoenix, Atlanta, Sacramento, Las Vegas and Austin Continue to Attract Thousands of Homebuyers From Pricey, High-Tax Metros
Phoenix's Arcadia, Sacramento's River Park, and Atlanta's Buckhead are the most popular neighborhoods for transplants SEATTLE, July 30, 2019 -- Twenty-five percent of home searchers looked to move to another metro area in the second quarter of 2019, compared to 24 percent during the same period last year, according to a new report from Redfin, the technology-powered real estate brokerage. The national share of home-searchers looking to relocate has been at this level—the highest on record—since the fourth quarter of 2018. The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of more than 1 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across 87 metro areas from April through June. "People are increasingly looking to leave expensive coastal metros like New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles," said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. "Lower mortgage rates have made buying a home more affordable, but not affordable enough for typical homebuyers contending these areas' sky-high home prices and taxes. The homebuyers who are heading out of town in search of affordability don't just want to save a few hundred dollars per month, they want to save thousands of dollars per month, and the only way to achieve that kind of cost savings is to move somewhere more affordable." Moving In: Metros with the Highest Net Inflow of Redfin Users Phoenix retained the number-one spot on the list of metro areas with the highest net inflow of Redfin users in the second quarter. A net inflow means more people are looking to move in than leave, while a net outflow means there are more people looking to leave than people looking to move in. The share of homebuyers searching in the Phoenix metro area from other metro areas was 33.7 percent in the second quarter, a slight decline from both a year earlier (34.0%) and the first quarter (34.5%). Most of the top migration destinations are relatively affordable metro areas, especially compared to the places from which they are attracting the most new residents. This is the first time that Boston has made it into the top 10 migration destinations. Most of the interest in Boston is coming from New York, which makes sense considering that Boston has similar job opportunities but sales, income, and property taxes that are all considerably lower than New York. In a separate analysis, Redfin determined the most popular neighborhoods for transplants in each of the top migration destinations, based on the share of Redfin.com home searches by users outside the area. Arcadia, Phoenix; River Park, Sacramento; and Buckhead, Atlanta topped the list of most attractive neighborhoods to newcomers, most of which were suburbs that tended to have higher median home prices than the overall metro area. Moving Out: Metros with the Highest Net Outflow of Redfin Users The list of metros people most-often looked to leave was once again topped by New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. in the second quarter. Net outflow is defined as the number of people looking to leave the metro minus the number of people looking to move to the metro. To read the full migration report, including methodology and an interactive map showing the latest search patterns, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/q2-2019-housing-migration-report. For more on the hottest neighborhoods in the top migration destinations, visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/hottest-neighborhoods-in-cities-people-are-moving-to. About Redfin Redfin is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 85 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has closed more than $85 billion in home sales.
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Get Ready to Make a Splash! Realtor.com Reveals the Top 10 Affordable Lake Towns of 2019
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CoreLogic Special Report: The Role of Housing in the Longest Economic Expansion
A 121-Month Evaluation on How the Nation's Real Estate Market Has Impacted the Economy IRVINE, CALIF. (JULY 18, 2019) -- CoreLogic, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its special report evaluating "The Role of Housing in the Longest Economic Expansion." This year, the report analyzes the U.S. housing market's impact on the latest 121-month economic expansion – the longest in the nation's history. The report examines the housing economy and looks at the growth of gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment rates and housing activity from June 2009 through July 2019. Key Takeaways The percent of homes with negative equity went from 25.9% in the first quarter of 2010 to 4.1% in the first quarter of 2019. Total home equity hit a record of $15.8 trillion at the end of the first quarter of 2019, up from $6.1 trillion in the first quarter of 2009. Between the first quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2019, the average equity per borrower increased from approximately $75,000 to approximately $171,000. Since 2010, the housing flip rate has increased significantly. In the first quarter of 2018, the number of properties bought and sold again within a two-year period reached its highest point at 11.4%. Since June 2009, home prices and rents have continued to grow. Through May 2019, home prices increased a cumulative 50% and single-family rents increased 33% in the United States. Rising employment rates typically have a positive impact on the housing economy as it can lead to an increase in potential home buyers and a decrease in negative equity (often referred to as being underwater or upside down, meaning borrowers owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth). In the first quarter of 2010, 25.9% of the total number of mortgaged residential properties in the United States were in negative equity. As the market has improved over the past decade, this share dropped to 4.1% in the first quarter of 2019 (Table 1). A strong economy and an increase in total home equity helped to reduce the negative equity share. Total home equity reached a record of $15.8 trillion at the end of the first quarter of 2019, up from $6.1 trillion in the first quarter of 2009. "During the last nine years, the expansion has created more than 20 million jobs, raised family incomes and rebuilt consumer confidence," said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. "The longest stretch of mortgage rates below 5% in more than 60 years has supplemented these factors. These economic forces have driven a recovery in home sales, construction, prices and home equity wealth." Housing has long been associated with wealth creation in the United States. Home flipping, or the act of buying a property with the intent to sell it quickly for a profit, is a tactic that some homeowners use to generate profit. Since the last recession, the flipping rate has increased significantly: the two-year flip rate reached its highest point in the first quarter of 2018 at 11.4%, up from its lowest level (4.9%) in the third quarter of 2010. (Figure 4) Home prices began falling just before the start of the recession and continued to decline at a more rapid pace throughout 2008 and 2009. However, from June 2009 through May 2019, home prices and rents have continued to grow. Through May 2019, home prices increased a cumulative 50% and single-family rents increased 33% in the United States. In the first quarter of 2019, 1.1 million new owners joined the housing economy, while the number of renters increased by 458,000. (Figure 3) With increasing home prices after the recession, many first-time buyers delayed homeownership, choosing to rent for longer. However, in 2018, millennial buyers – those born from 1981 to 1996 – reversed this trend by becoming the largest cohort for finance-home purchases, accounting for 44% of home-purchase mortgage applications. These millennial buyers are looking for affordability and not buying in the typical coastal cities seen in the past. According to CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI), in May 2019, four of the top 10 metros for millennial buyers were undervalued (Pittsburgh; Rochester, New York; Wichita, Kansas and Grand Rapids, Michigan), five metros were at value (Buffalo, New York; Milwaukee; Albany, New York; Provo, Utah and Des Moines, Iowa) and one metro was overvalued (Salt Lake City). Metros in California had the lowest percentage of millennials applying for a mortgage. Despite an unemployment rate near a 50-year low, inflation rates below the Federal Reserve Board's 2% target and strong GDP growth (3.1%) in the first quarter of 2019, concerns of a looming recession have been rising. The report explores recent recession indicators and looks at how the housing economy could weather the next dip. To download and read the full special report, click here. About CoreLogic CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), the leading provider of property insights and solutions, promotes a healthy housing market and thriving communities. Through its enhanced property data solutions, services and technologies, CoreLogic enables real estate professionals, financial institutions, insurance carriers, government agencies and other housing market participants to help millions of people find, acquire and protect their homes. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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Realtor Survey Shows Decline in Foreign Investment in U.S. Residential Real Estate
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Realtor.com Predicts Market Shift That Could Impact Buyers Well Into 2020
U.S. Inventory Declines Likely to Return by October SANTA CLARA, Calif., July 9, 2019 -- The housing market is posed for a shift that could affect buyers well into 2020 -- the resurgence of national inventory declines. According to realtor.com's July 2019 Monthly Housing Trend report released today, in just a few months* buyers may begin to see a drop in the number of homes for sale that could lead to the return of bidding wars, stronger price appreciation and quicker home sales. Continuing its unabated record growth, the U.S. median listing price in June reached its likely high point for the year at $316,000, earlier than its usual July peak due to the mismatch of what's available and what buyers want. Nationally, housing inventory grew 2.8 percent year-over-year, an addition of approximately 40,000 listings, down from May's 2.9 percent growth. The slowing of inventory gains first appeared in 2019 with a decline from 6.4 percent growth in January to 5.8 percent in February. It continued throughout the spring with 4.4 percent growth in both March and April, 2.9 percent in May and now 2.8 percent in June. If this trend continues, inventory growth will flatten over the next three months and could hit its first decline in October 2019. "It was only 18 months ago that the number of homes for sale hit its lowest level in recorded history and sparked the fiercest competition among buyers we've ever seen. If the trend we're seeing continues, overall inventory could near record lows by early next year," said Danielle Hale, chief economist for realtor.com®. "So far there's been a lackluster response to low mortgage rates, but if they do spark fresh buyer interest later in the year, U.S. inventory could set new record lows." Part of this slowdown can be attributed to the fact that newly listed homes have either declined or reported meager growth in 2019, such as June's 2.3 percent yearly decrease. According to Hale, the reason why people aren't putting their homes on the market is more difficult to determine. "It's likely a combination of rate-lock, recently decreased consumer confidence and older generations choosing to age in place," she added. Only seven years ago, 30 year fixed mortgage rates reached their lowest point at 3.3 percent since Freddie Mac began tracking this data, which prompted many homeowners to refinance. Although rates are still low, they're currently 50 basis points higher than they were in December 2012 and higher than one third of the weekly rates recorded over the last seven years, which means a substantial number of homeowners have mortgages with rates well below today's levels. If homeowners want to trade up, they would not only have to pay more for a larger home, they would pay more to finance it. Additionally, consumer confidence fell 4.4 percent over the past year, which could reflect consumer concerns over a potential recession or future economic growth. The time properties spent on the market in June 2019 was 56 days, a two-day increase from last year. Additionally, the number of homes with price reductions increased by 8.7 percent compared to the previous year, which means one in five homes on the market this June had a price cut, compared to one in six last year. *Projections based on January-June 2019 inventory trend data and assume no disruption to current trajectory. For more information on realtor.com®'s June housing trend report, please visit: https://www.realtor.com/research/june-2019-data/ Editors note: Realtor.com® is upgrading its database to a new system that allows for more enhanced listings tracking. Market level trend data is being held until the conversion is complete. About realtor.com® Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search℠, offers the most MLS-listed for-sale listings among national real estate portals, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. Through its Opcity platform, realtor.com® uses data science and machine learning to connect consumers with a real estate professional based on their specific buying and selling needs. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is a trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com.
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Median-Priced Homes Not Affordable for Average Wage Earners in 74 Percent of U.S. Housing Markets
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Redfin Report: McAllen, Texas, Salt Lake City and Grand Rapids Have the Highest Homeownership Rates for Single Mothers
31% of single mothers are homeowners nationally, down from nearly 36% in 2010 SEATTLE, June 24, 2019 -- Just 31.1 percent of single mothers nationwide owned homes in 2017, on par with the 2016 rate and down from 35.5 percent in 2010, according to a new report from Redfin, the technology-powered real estate brokerage. At 63.9 percent, the overall homeownership rate for households across the country was more than double that of single mothers, though it was also down from nearly 70 percent in 2010. Over the same time period, the national median home price rose by more than 40 percent. The metros with the highest rates of homeownership among single moms tend to be relatively affordable. McAllen, Texas, where the typical home sells for $165,000, has the highest homeownership rate among metro areas with at least 20,000 single mothers in 2017, with 46.6 percent of single moms owning homes. That's followed by Salt Lake City (41.7%), Grand Rapids (41.5%) and Minneapolis (40.3%). All but two (El Paso and San Antonio) of the top 10 metros for single-mom homeownership have higher-than-national overall homeownership rates as well. The four metros with the lowest rates of single-mom homeownership are all in California: Fresno (20.5%), Los Angeles (20.7%), San Diego (22.4%) and Bakersfield (22.6%). The metros with the lowest rates of homeownership among single mothers all have overall homeownership rates below the national rate. "Although more single moms have entered the workforce since 2015, thanks in part to a growing economy, single mothers haven't yet been able to gain increased wealth through equity from homeownership. That's because in many expensive metros, single moms aren't able to access the benefits of homeownership due to a lack of affordable homes for sale," said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. "But in areas like Salt Lake City and Minneapolis, single moms are better able to afford a home without a dual income or financial support from a partner. Beyond being a primary source for building wealth, owning a home can provide some necessary stability for children because homeowners have predictable monthly mortgage payments and don't have to worry about a landlord raising rent or selling their home." To read the full report, with additional metro-level data and analysis, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/single-mother-homeownership-rate-us. About Redfin Redfin is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 85 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has closed more than $85 billion in home sales.
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Redfin Determines the Value of a Garage Across Major U.S. Metros
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Redfin Ranks the Most Affordable Places to Get Married and Buy a Home in the Same Year
For Newlyweds, Cleveland, Detroit and Pittsburgh are the most affordable places to have a wedding and purchase their first home SEATTLE, June 11, 2019 -- Cleveland, Detroit and Pittsburgh are the most affordable places where couples can throw a wedding and also cover a down payment on their first home, according to a new report from Redfin, a technology-powered real estate brokerage. In all three Midwestern metro areas, the average combined cost of a wedding and a down payment is less than $65,000, compared with the national average of more than $109,000. San Francisco, where typical wedding and down payment costs add up to $325,000, is the most expensive place to get married and buy a home, followed by Los Angeles($168,000) and New York($158,000). To determine how much cash couples in different parts of the country would need on hand to throw a wedding and buy their first home, Redfin calculated down payment amounts in 25 metro areas, assuming a 20 percent down payment on the median list price as of April 2019. Redfin paired it with metro-level and national data on wedding costs from WeddingWire, which found the average cost of a wedding, including an engagement ring, ceremony and reception, and honeymoon to be $38,700 in 2018. Here is the full ranking of the most affordable cities to have a wedding and purchase a home, leading up to the most expensive: In expensive coastal metros including Seattle, Boston and San Diego, a down payment alone costs over $100,000, without factoring in a wedding. For couples in these places with visions of a dream wedding, it might be worth spending the money on the party, considering it is roughly half the cost of a down payment, which may be far less attainable. Even in relatively affordable housing markets like Phoenix, Minneapolis or Atlanta, a typical down payment is more than twice as much as an average wedding. If saving for a home is a priority of residents in these areas, skipping the big day and eloping to city hall might be a worthwhile strategy. To read the full report, including personal stories from Redfin employees currently navigating the wedding and home buying process, please visit: click here. About Redfin Redfin is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 85 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has closed more than $85 billion in home sales.
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Redfin: Millennials Could Buy Homes 3 Years Faster under Sen. Warren's Student Debt Cancellation Plan
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Newly Listed Homes Get 3.4 Times More Online Views Than Those with a Price Drop
Pricing homes accurately from the start will maximize initial homebuyer interest SEATTLE, May 28, 2019 -- Homes get 3.4 times more online views the day they are listed than they do the day the seller drops the price, according to a new report from Redfin, a technology-powered real estate brokerage. The analysis looked at Redfin.com pageviews for more than 1.2 million listings and found the average number of views each listing received per day on the market, relative to the listing date and the date of the first price drop. "It's critical to price your home to sell from the start," said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. "Fair or not, buyers judge a home by how many days it has been on the market. A home that has been on the market for more than a few weeks has a scarlet letter on it, and buyers will wonder why no one else wanted to buy it. Dropping the price can help get your home onto the radar of some buyers who are searching for homes priced just below the original price, but you likely won't be able to regain the appeal of a newly listed home. " A home for sale that is viewed by 100 buyers online in its first day receives an average of just 17 views per day after 30 days on the market. Dropping the price only boosts that to 29 views, and the bump only lasts a single day. The day after a price drop, the home's views fall back down to just 18 per day. Online views of home listings drop off steeply after the first day, with half as many visits on day two and a quarter as many after a week on the market. During the four-week period ending May 19, nearly a quarter (24.2%) of homes for sale had a price drop, up from 21 percent a year earlier, but down from the 30 percent record high posted last October. As home sellers this spring adjust to a market that's less favorable to them than it has been in years, it's increasingly important to make a home as appealing as possible to the most serious buyers, who often receive alerts when a home is first listed. "Especially in a market where bidding wars are not the norm, it can be tempting for a seller to price their home a little high to avoid leaving money on the table," explained Seattle-based Redfin listing agent Dorothee Graham. "If we have to drop the price, I'll run a new comparative market analysis (CMA) so the seller can see how much similar homes nearby are listing and selling for. Then I offer to take them in person to tour those properties so they understand where their home should be priced." "I also pull a list of everything available in that price range I'm recommending so they can see what else is out there, regardless of property type, size and condition, because this is how buyers are searching," continued Graham. "We also keep in mind price intervals and how homebuyers tend to search on Redfin and other real estate sites. A seller might want to reduce their price by just $10,000 to $15,000, but I advise that this won't work unless it puts them in a different price bracket. When you do a price drop it has to be meaningful." To read the full report, including the full methodology, please click here. About Redfin Redfin is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 85 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has closed more than $85 billion in home sales.
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Redfin Survey: Less than Half of Homebuyers Said Tax Reform Has Affected their Search
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After Amazon HQ2: New York and D.C. Offer a Tale of Two Housing Markets
Arlington, Va. housing market continues to surge while Manhattan has cooled off SANTA CLARA, Calif., May 23, 2019 -- Being named an Amazon HQ2 winner has resulted in dramatically different outcomes for the Arlington, Va. and Manhattan, N.Y. housing markets, according to a recent realtor.com analysis released today. Although the initial announcement instantly fueled the housing markets in both cities, Amazon's later decision to pull out of Queens, N.Y., has cooled the Manhattan market, while Arlington continues to remain hot. Immediately following the November announcement, home sales in both cities jumped 50 percent year-over-year, but their similarities ended there. To date, Arlington has seen six-figure (17 percent) median list price growth of $110,000 and a more than 40 percent drop in inventory, while Manhattan has had a comparatively meager price increase of less than 3 percent growth of $40,000, and a 3 percent decrease in inventory. Another difference is the metros' geographical impact. News of the Arlington headquarters prompted a flurry of activity in the area closest to the new headquarters, but the Queens headquarters spurred growth across the bridge in Manhattan, likely due to anticipated high salaries from Amazon. "With a household name as big as Amazon moving into Arlington's backyard, we expected that home prices were going to increase, but because the number of homes for sale is not keeping up with demand, the price growth we've witnessed so far in both the mid-market and luxury sector has been dramatic," said Danielle Hale, realtor.com®'s chief economist. "Meanwhile, Manhattan's housing market, which boomed in November following the announcement, has cooled off after Amazon decided to pull out of the city." Amazon Effect Increases Home Prices At the time of Amazon's HQ2 announcement in November 2018, Arlington's median home price was $640,000. The median home price in the area has sky-rocketed since then, increasing by a whopping $110,000 or 17.3 percent to $750,000 in April. Comparatively, over the same time frame, the national median list price has only increased $17,000 or 5.5 percent. Conversely, the typical Manhattan home list price was $1.65 million in November. Since the time of the announcement and subsequent pulling out, Manhattan's median list price has increased a pedestrian 2.4 percent to $1.69 million. Sales Surge and Inventory Drops Following Announcement Even as prices are skyrocketing, Arlington's inventory reveals a market that's unable to keep up with the overwhelming demand. According to realtor.com®'s April inventory data, after sales surged, the number of active listings was down 48.2 percent, to less than 400 listings -- a massive year-over-year drop in inventory. Meanwhile in Manhattan, the housing market responded similarly in the early stages, but changed following Amazon's reversal. Initially, after the announcement in November, home sales jumped 52.1 percent year-over-year -- a night and day difference from the 0.7 percent increase Manhattan saw the previous month in October. In February, Manhattan home sales were up 11 percent year-over-year, a healthy increase, but still significantly lower than the area's initial response. In November, Manhattan had 8,275 active listings available for sale. That number dropped to 8,015 in February. Even though more homes were scooped up in Manhattan than in Arlington, it resulted in a much less noticeable, 3.1 percent decrease. Buyers Expand Their Search Area to Find a Home As the number of listings in Arlington dwindles, buyers are broadening their searches to surrounding markets. The number of active listings in the Northern Virginia area fell 22.5 percent since April 2018, and half of all homes sold rapidly in under 34 days. Meanwhile, median list prices were up 2.3 percent year-over-year, and reached $545,000 in April. Amazon's Impact Extends Into Luxury Sector While Arlington's mid-market is thriving, its luxury sector is faring even better. Luxury asking prices in Arlington -- the top 5 percent of home prices -- reached $2.4 million in April, up 22.1 percent year-over-year. At the same time, sales of million-dollar homes increased by 34.8 percent, according to realtor.com®'s most recent sales data. Similarly, luxury prices in the surrounding area of Northern Virginia reached $1.6 million, up 10.5 percent year-over-year, while sales of million-dollar homes increased by 45.7 percent. About realtor.com® Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search®, offers the most MLS-listed for-sale listings among national real estate portals, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. Through its Opcity platform, realtor.com® uses data science and machine learning to connect consumers with a real estate professional based on their specific buying and selling needs. Realtor.com®pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is a trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com.
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Redfin: Vacant Homes Fetch Less Money and Take Longer to Sell
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Realtors Midyear Forecast: Home Sales Expected to be Stronger
WASHINGTON (May 16, 2019) -- Continued economic expansion, rising home sales and an increase in wage growth that is on par with home price growth are some of the expectations for the second half of 2019, according to speakers at today's residential real estate forum at the 2019 REALTORS® Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo. Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors®, delivered his 2019 midyear forecast, which predicted changing future migration patterns as buyers search for more affordable markets. Inventory in the U.S. has grown for eight straight months on a year-over-year basis, and Yun expects that to continue. "Home sales should be much stronger based on the economic fundamentals of jobs, interest rates, population and consumer confidence," said Yun. After several years of wage growth outpacing home price growth, this year both are more closely aligned as average hourly wages accelerate. "With strong job creation, wages are growing at a faster pace. Finally, wages and home prices are aligning," Yun said. "This is good news for employees." He added that this shift is a healthy development toward keeping housing affordability stable. That said, because of significant differences in home prices between metro markets, Yun says there may be a steady shift in the relocation of people and companies into more affordable regions of the country. Housing affordability had been falling according to NAR's Housing Affordability Index. "While affordability has been sliding, it is still better than we saw in the year 2000. This is due to much lower mortgage interest rates today," Yun says. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com®, also spoke and projects that year-over-year inventory growth will be moderate nationwide. Realtor.com® has seen listing prices up 6.9% year-over-year in April. The REALTORS® Affordability Distribution Curve and Score produced by NAR and realtor.com® shows that higher income households have more access to available inventory. "We used to see home price growth only around the coasts, but now we're seeing it throughout the country. Nationwide there are not enough affordable homes on the market, and those numbers have been declining," Hale said. The third panelist—Dr. Johannes Stroebel, associate professor of finance at New York University—discussed a recently developed paper on behavioral economics and housing. His research evaluated how Facebook data and individual beliefs about the local housing market could influence friends' purchase choices. People's beliefs about whether buying a house is a good investment are driven by the house price experiences of their friends, Stroebel said. "Friends experiences are fundamentally related to personal beliefs of the housing market investments and influence personal behavior." According to Stroebel, having Facebook friends who experience a 5% increase in home prices over the past two years can increase the probability that a renter buys a home over the next two years by 3%. "Individuals do discuss property value with their friends, and this changes behavior," he said. Positive experiences were even shown to increase size of a home individuals purchased. "When home prices in socially-connected counties go up, it causes a reaction that changes home prices locally." The National Association of Realtors® is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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Redfin Report: Birmingham, Little Rock and Charleston are the Most Affordable Places to Have a Baby
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Redfin Migration Report: Phoenix is Top Destination for People Looking to Leave Expensive, High-Tax Metros
More than one third of people searching Redfin.com for Phoenix homes last quarter were from out of town SEATTLE, May 6, 2019 -- Twenty-five percent of Redfin.com home searchers looked to move to another metro area in the first quarter of 2019, up from 23 percent last year, according to a new report from Redfin, the tech-powered real estate brokerage. The national share of home-searchers looking to relocate currently sits at its highest level on record, tied with the fourth quarter of 2018. The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of more than 1 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across 87 metro areas from January through March. "People are feeling more confident about the economy and now feel financially secure enough to make a cross-country move to a metro where their money will go further," said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. "Homeownership may be out of reach for current residents of San Francisco or New York, but there are plenty of affordable homes and lower taxes in places like Phoenix, Atlanta and Austin. As more workers move to these places, there is a chicken and egg phenomenon where more companies open offices, which attracts even more workers." Moving In: Metros with the Highest Net Inflow of Redfin Users Phoenix re-took the top spot on the list of metro areas, outranking Sacramento with the highest net inflow of Redfin users in the first quarter. A net inflow means more people are looking to move in than leave, while a net outflow means there are more people looking to leave than people looking to move in. The net inflow for Phoenix hit 7,949, the highest level on record not only for Phoenix, but for any metro area to date since Redfin began reporting net migration data in early 2017. The share of homebuyers searching in the Phoenix metro area from other metro areas also hit a new high of 34.5 percent in the first quarter, surpassing the previous peak of 34.0 percent in the second quarter of 2018. "It is pretty rare for me to meet a home-buying client who was born or raised in Phoenix or even elsewhere in Arizona," said Phoenix area Redfin agent Heather Corley. "So many people are coming here from expensive cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle for our low cost of living and great weather. The trend is really increasing lately thanks to strong job growth and companies such as Allstate, Intel, Boeing, Microsoft and Facebook moving to the area." The uptick in migration is beginning to drive more competition for homes in the Phoenix area. "The rise in out-of-state buyers is definitely driving prices up," explained Corley. "We're seeing a lot more homes for sale that receive multiple offers, and many times we're competing with all-cash buyers." "Many of the buyers I work with are moving away from expensive places in California to escape high taxes, traffic, and natural disasters," said Phoenix area Redfin agent Van Welborn. Vincent Shook, another Phoenix Redfin agent added: "When a California resident visits Phoenix and sees how much more home they can afford here, it really gives them something to think about. Plus, Phoenix property taxes are just so much lower." Moving Out – Metros with the Highest Net Outflow of Redfin Users Perennial sources of out-migration New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., topped the list of metros people looked to leave, posting the highest net outflows in the first quarter. In each of the six metros with the largest outflows—New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Chicago and Denver—the total net outflow of users was up from the same period a year earlier. To read the full migration report, including methodology and an interactive map of migration destinations and origins, visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/q1-2019-housing-migration-report. About Redfin Redfin is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 85 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has closed more than $85 billion in home sales.
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Affordability in the Top 10 Most Popular Markets for Millennials, According to NAR
WASHINGTON (April 25, 2019) – A wide range of factors contribute to why millennials decide to move to certain areas, remain for an extended period or choose to relocate shortly after their arrival. Job market and affordability in the given location are two of the main reasons that impact millennials the most, according to the National Association of Realtors®' 2019 report, "Most Popular Areas for Millennials: where they move and stay. " The report analyzed employment gains, population trends, income levels and housing conditions in the largest 100 metropolitan statistical areas across the country to identify the most popular areas for millennials. The top 10 metro areas were selected because of their high share of both present millennial residents and recent movers, as well as their favorable employment opportunities. NAR found that Madison, WI, is one of the top destinations for millennials. Seventy-five percent of recent movers to the city have been millennials. Additionally, this segment of the population has mostly elected to remain in the area. Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, says Madison has many attributes that appeal to millennials, including earning potential. As of 2017, the median income for millennials there was $62,000, and $68,500 for millennials who had recently moved to the city. "In comparison to other areas, Madison offers one of the highest wages for millennials," says Yun. "Moreover, this income level combined with the robust employment opportunities and the affordability, make Madison among one of the most appealing locations for millennials who are looking to stay longer and raise families." The report also found that California is a popular home buying destination for millennials, specifically Bakersfield, which is between San Francisco and Los Angeles. Bakersfield - where 28% of millennials live and where 67% move to - is attractive to millennials because it is one of the most affordable metro areas in the state. Yun has called for more West Coast housing and construction. He says Bakersfield's affordable homes makes it inviting to millennials. Of the millennials who most recently moved there, they can afford to purchase nearly 15% of the homes listed for sale. This is in comparison to neighboring Los Angeles, Calif., where millennials can only afford to buy 4% of listed homes. "The increasing employment rate in California is another strong selling point among this generation," says Yun. "While the rate of unemployment in Bakersfield is higher than it is nationwide, we're seeing job growth there pick up at a strong pace. Home building in Bakersfield is rising, too. Many newcomers to San Francisco and Los Angeles do not stay for long because of unaffordability. Millennials moving to Bakersfield meanwhile are looking to take advantage of conditions toward homeownership." NAR research revealed that Oklahoma City, OK, is attractive to millennials looking to purchase a home or who are already in a home. Twenty-nine percent of the city's residents are millennials, while 61% of those who recently moved there are millennials. During the time of the survey, of the properties on the market in Oklahoma City, millennials were in position to afford 30% of those homes. The unemployment rate is less than 3%, and the city experienced the third highest increase in wages among the 100 largest metro areas. "An overwhelming majority of younger and older millennial homebuyers responded that their strong desire to own a home was the primary reason that they purchased their home," says Yun. "As long as supply keeps up to meet demand, and prevents costs from rising too high and too rapidly, these identified metro areas are likely to see an uptick in purchases from millennial homebuyers - including Oklahoma City." Other Notable Findings One out of two people who moved in the 100 largest metro areas was a millennial (54%), and one of four residents was also a millennial (25%). In the top 10 metro areas, millennials can afford to purchase, on average 17% of homes currently listed for sale. In 2017, affordability was low in most of the areas that millennials moved to that year. The median income for millennials who recently moved in the 100 largest metro areas was $53,000. Millennials who moved recently in these areas can afford to purchase nearly one out of four of the homes currently listed for sale (23%). Millennials tend to reside and move to locations and cities where employment is strong. In the majority of the top 10 metro areas, the unemployment rate was lower than the national level in February 2019. Specifically, on average, the unemployment rate was 3.6% in these areas. NAR analyzed recent migration and population trends, employment gains, income levels and housing conditions in the largest 100 metro areas across the country to identify the most popular areas for millennials to move and stay. The National Association of Realtors® is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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Homes with Close Proximity to Electric Vehicle Charging Stations List for 1.5 Times More
Realtor.com® analysis finds that you'll pay a premium to live in a metro that accommodates electric vehicles SANTA CLARA, Calif., April 22, 2019 -- A new analysis by realtor.com, the Home of Home Search, released today found that home prices in the nation's top 20 neighborhoods that are most accommodating to electric vehicles are listed 1.5 times higher than their surrounding metro area on average, and 2.6 times higher than the rest of the country. Nine of the top 20 ZIP codes are in California. In honor of Earth Day, realtor.comⓇ used data from OpenChargeMap to track 19,743 charging stations mapped across 6,980 ZIP codes, and then analyzed the housing markets of the top 20 areas with the most electric vehicle charging stations. According to the analysis, the combined median listing price for the top 20 ZIP codes is $782,000, 1.5 times higher than their surrounding metro area on average, and 2.6 times higher than the rest of the country. Half of homes in these ZIP codes sell in 75 days, 15 days slower than their surrounding metro area on average, and 10 days slower than the rest of the country, consistent with sales trends in pricer areas. "Our data shows there's definitely a link between the prevalence of electric vehicle charging stations and higher home prices," says Danielle Hale, chief economist, realtor.com®. "But there's a difference between correlation and causation. The trend we're seeing in the data is most likely a result of the fact that wealthier homeowners are more likely to purchase expensive electric vehicles. But regardless of the cause, if you're shopping for a home in a ZIP with an abundance of electric vehicle charging stations, you'll likely pay a premium." The top 20 markets represented in the data all fall within nine states, with a large majority of the ZIP codes in California. ZIP code 92618 in Irvine, Calif. has the most charging stations, while the top 20 ZIP codes have an average of 30.1 charging stations each. It stands to reason that California leads the nation in charging stations, given electric car sales make up 10 percent of all new cars sold in the state, outpacing all other states in the nation. Beyond Tesla's manufacturing presence in California, there are several contributing factors that have led to increased awareness of EVs in the state, including the state's Zero-Emission Vehicle Program, California's EV rebate, coastal political leanings (ie pro-cleantech, pro-innovation), higher than average wages. Research has shown a connection between the fact that California highways allow EVs to drive in HOV lanes and EV adoption, but this benefit to EV owners is not exclusive to California. Outside of California, the most EV-friendly housing markets can be found in Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Nevada, New York, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas. Although significantly more affordable than the majority of the EV-accommodating ZIPS, the analysis found that homes in close proximity to EV charging stations still sell at a premium, with non-California ZIPS seeing median listing prices that are still 1.5 times higher than their surrounding metro median, and 2.0 times higher than the U.S. median listing price, on average. Top 20 ZIP Codes For Electric Vehicles Rank based on Number of EV Charging Stations Per ZIP Code Methodology: Zip codes were ranked by number of EV charging stations located within the zip code. Housing trends such as median listing price come from the realtor.com® residential listings database for listings actively for sale during March 2019. Each zip code reported here represents the top ranked zip code in its respective metropolitan area. Reported averages for the top 20 were weighted by each market's number of active listings during March 2019. EV charging station data from OpenChargeMap was accessed on April 1, 2019 which at the time contained records for nearly 20,000 (19,743) charging stations mapped across the United States in 6,980 ZIP codes. About realtor.com® Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search℠, offers an extensive inventory of for-sale and rental listings, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. It pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is the trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [NASDAQ: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com.
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Detroit, Indianapolis and Buffalo Among the Least Disaster-Prone and Most Affordable Places to Live
Redfin Analysis Uses "Natural Disaster Hazard Score" to Rate the 50 Biggest U.S. Metro Areas by Frequency of Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, Tornadoes and Hurricanes SEATTLE, April 11, 2019 -- Providence, Rhode Island, Detroit, Michigan and Hartford, Connecticut are the least disaster-prone metro areas in the country, according to Redfin, the technology-powered real estate brokerage. In a new report, Redfin rated the 50 biggest metro areas according to their relative frequency of five major types of natural disasters—earthquakes, fires, floods, tornadoes, and hurricanes—using a new metric called the "Natural Disaster Hazard Score." Each of the five components is measured on a scale of one to 100, where 100 is the most hazardous metro area for the category and one is the least hazardous. The overall Natural Disaster Hazard Score is an average of the five components' frequencies. Metros with low Natural Disaster Hazard Score ratings tend to have relatively affordable housing markets. Nine of the 10 least hazardous metro areas have median home prices below the $287,400 national median. Salt Lake City is the exception, ranking as the eighth-least hazard-prone metro area with a Natural Disaster Hazard Score of 16 and a median home price of $320,000. Many of the most disaster-prone metros, including Washington, D.C. (52), Los Angeles (52) and New York (41), have home prices well above the national median. These three areas also tend to be near the top of Redfin's list of origins common among online home-searchers looking to relocate to more affordable, inland housing markets, like Las Vegas, which ranks fourth among the safest-rated metros. "When you buy a home you are paying for more than just the house," said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. "There could be hidden costs associated with natural disasters. If a natural disaster strikes, you may have to pay for damage to your home or for the cost of evacuating your family. And even during times of calm, you may still need to pay for insurance against floods, fire, or earthquakes. Some homes in more hazardous areas might seem more affordable if you are just looking at the sticker price, but they may end up costing more when risks related to natural disasters are factored in." In addition to high home prices in cities like Washington, D.C., Los Angeles and New York, the likelihood of natural disasters may be another factor driving homebuyers away from the coasts. When hurricanes, fires, earthquakes and floods are factored into the equation, the affordable inland metros are even more attractive destinations. Below is a ranking of the 50 largest metro areas from least-to-most hazard-prone, according to Redfin's Natural Disaster Hazard Score: To view the full report, complete with methodology and an interactive map, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/natural-disaster-hazard-score-by-metro-area. About Redfin Redfin is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 85 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has closed more than $85 billion in home sales.
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Average 2019 Homebuyer Spends 3 Fewer Days Searching, Tours 1 Less Home Than Last Year
In Philadelphia, buyers this winter found homes 4 weeks faster than 2018, 2 weeks faster in Washington, D.C.Buyers in Atlanta toured 7 fewer homes than a year ago; in Phoenix they saw 4 fewer homes SEATTLE, April 1, 2019 -- It took the typical homebuyer this winter 73 days to find and close on their new home after their first home tour, down from 76 days last year and from a peak of 84 days in winter 2016, according to a report by Redfin, the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Redfin's analysis took into account home touring and offer activity among thousands of people who bought homes with Redfin agents nationwide in the three-month period ending in February over each of the past five years. "This year, there are more homes for sale relative to the number of buyers, so a buyer is more likely to have their first offer accepted, while sellers are having to wait longer for their home to sell," said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. "It's like a 1950s-era school dance with more boys than girls -- the girls can quickly find a dancing partner, but more boys are waiting around with no one to dance with." Philadelphia (28 days faster), Houston (17 days) and Washington, D.C., (14 days) saw the biggest year-over-year drops in the number of days buyers spent on the market looking for a home. At the other end of the spectrum, Miami (17 days longer) and New York (13 days) saw the biggest jumps in days buyers spent looking for homes. Most of the metro areas where buyers spent more time on the market this year than last year were on the East Coast, while buyers in cooling West Coast markets were able to find homes more quickly. Buyers' Time on Market, Median for 3-Month Period Ending in February Buyers this year are also having to see fewer homes in person and write fewer offers before successfully landing a home. Nationally, buyers toured an average of about 10 homes this winter before closing on a home, and made an average of 1.6 offers, compared to touring about 11 homes and making 1.8 offers a year ago. "The housing market isn't as daunting for first-time homebuyers," added Fairweather. "If you put in a fair offer, there is a good chance that offer will be accepted. Also, because mortgage interest rates are lower than they've been in over a year, homebuying is more affordable, especially in expensive places like San Francisco and San Jose where home prices have fallen." Homebuyers in Atlanta saw the biggest decrease in the number of homes toured before closing on their home. Buyers there toured an average of 12.2 homes in winter before finding a home, down from 18.8 homes a year earlier. Buyers in Phoenix also saw a big reduction, touring an average of 12.4 homes this winter compared to 16.3 last winter. Tours and Offers, Average for 3-Month Period Ending in February To view the full report, complete with additional charts and insights please visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/homebuyers-finding-homes-faster-2019/. About Redfin Redfin is the technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 85 major metro areas across the U.S. The company has closed more than $60 billion in home sales.
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Spring Home Shoppers No.1 Competitor: Their Budget
With nearly half of shoppers looking for a home under $200,000 this spring; many expect it will take a year or more to find and close on a home SANTA CLARA, Calif., March 21, 2019 -- This spring's home shoppers expect less competition overall as more inventory continues to hit the market nationwide, but will struggle with affordability as home prices continue to rise, according to new survey data released today by realtor.com®, the Home of Home Search. The survey also found, nearly half of shoppers this spring are looking for homes at or under $200,000, which despite less competition will prove difficult to find, as this one segment of housing has actually experienced the largest inventory decline year-over-year. Realtor.com® conducted the online survey earlier this month, consisting of 1,015 respondents planning to purchase a home in the next 12 months in conjunction with Toluna Research. "The 2019 spring home buying season will be characterized by rising home prices, a moderate pace of home sales, and an influx of inventory," said Danielle Hale, realtor.com®'s chief economist. "More homes on the market and lower mortgage rates will help offset some difficulties associated with price gains, but affordability will remain the primary challenge for shoppers, particularly in lower price segments." When survey respondents were asked whether falling mortgage rates or higher home prices had the greater impact on their search, 38 percent of respondents indicated the rising home prices, 26 percent said falling interest rates, and 35 percent said neither. The largest segment of shoppers heading into this spring have been searching for a home for seven months or more - this is nearly identical to last year. Slightly more than a quarter - 26 percent - have been in the market four to six months, and 34 percent have just entered the market in the last three months. This has flipped from last year when 34 percent had been searching for four to six months, and 26 percent had been searching three months or less. This could be an indication that fewer shoppers started looking in late 2018 due to the mortgage rate spike. But with more overall inventory available to buyers this year, competition is expected to be less intense. When asked how much competition shoppers expect to face this year, just over 60 percent indicated at least some competition, as compared to 70 percent last year. Only 17 percent of this year's shoppers plan to offer more than asking price this year to secure their purchase, down from 26 percent last year. Similarly, 33 percent of shoppers this year expected to put down more than 20 percent, which is significantly less than last year's 40 percent. Only 38 percent plan to check listings websites everyday, compared to 42 percent last year. "The spring homebuying season is an improvement over last year from an inventory perspective nationwide, but would-be buyers still face challenges. This year, shoppers are going to be grappling with their budgets, rather than competition from a horde of other buyers. Instead of worrying about which tactics will help them get ahead, potential buyers will have to decide what they are willing to give up in order to stick to their budget," Hale added. The shift in higher-end buyer mentality is likely attributed to the recent growth in inventory, which has increased six percent year-over-year, according to Hale, and will will give buyers more options to choose from this spring. For example, the number of homes priced at or above $750,000 rose by 11 percent in February. However, the number of homes priced at $200,000 or below dropped by seven percent year-over-year during the same time. The drop in homes under $200,000 is likely to create a difficult environment for entry level home buyers as nearly half of home shoppers this spring are looking for a home at or under $200,000. Alternatively, only six percent of spring shoppers are looking for a home at or above $750,000 -- the price range that saw the largest increase since last year. For more information, about the spring 2019 housing market, please visit: https://www.realtor.com/research/ About realtor.com® Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search, offers an extensive inventory of for-sale and rental listings, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. It pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is the trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com.
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Vast Majority Think 2019 First Quarter is Good Time to Buy Home, says Realtor Survey
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Attention Sellers: The First Week of April Is the Best Time to List a Home
Homes listed the first week of April see 14 percent more views, 5 percent less competition, sell 6 days faster SANTA CLARA, Calif., March 14, 2019 -- Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search, today announced the first week of April is the best time to put a home on the market in 2019. By listing during the week of March 31 - April 6, sellers are able to take advantage of a sweet spot in the season that offers high buyer demand, less competition, quick home sales, and strong prices. "June is often considered the peak of home buying season, but our analysis found the first week of April is best for sellers looking to maximize list price, and also reduce the risk of price cuts and competition from other sellers," said Danielle Hale, chief economist for realtor.com®. "Given the time it takes from listing to close, putting a home on the market in early April positions sellers to attract buyers seeking to close and move before the beginning of school year." The analysis is based on trends in median listing prices, views per property on realtor.com, home price drops, median days on market, and number of listings on the market over the last three years. Why the first week of April? The market is bustling with buyers, but the number of homes hasn't peaked yet, which means more demand for every listing. In fact, homes listed the first week of April see 14 percent more views, on average, and 5 percent less competition compared to the rest of the year's weekly average. As a result, homes are likely to sell 6 days, or nearly 9 percent, faster on average. The typical home on the market between March 31 and April 6 is priced nearly 6 percent higher than the beginning of the year. Based on early 2019 data, this could mean an extra $17,000 added to the list price for a typical listing priced just over $306,000 in early April. Although the typical June listing is 7 percent more expensive than the best week to list, waiting until June to list your home could mean a higher likelihood of a price reduction as buyers bow out toward end of summer. In addition to more views, homes listed at the beginning of April are approximately 1 percent less likely to take a price cut, on average compared to the rest of the year. On the flip side, homes listed in June are 1 percent more likely to have their price reduced and see nearly 2 percent fewer listing views than other times of the year, on average. Other factors that favor listing the first week of April Another factor that's likely to boost April buyer demand this year, is the surprising decline in mortgage rates that started in November 2018. Rates are now below 4.5 percent vs. nearly 5.0 percent in November 2018. These lower rates could entice demand earlier than usual and April sellers could see even more buyers trying to take advantage of this temporary window of affordability. See below for a full list of the best time to buy in the top 50 largest U.S. markets. Best Time to List for Top 50 Largest U.S. Metros About realtor.com® Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search, offers an extensive inventory of for-sale and rental listings, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. It pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is the trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com.
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Redfin Unveils the Best U.S. Cities for Public Transit in 2019
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Homes.com Study: Romantic Breakups Tie with Joblessness in Triggering 'Boomerang' Behavior
NORFOLK, VA (Feb. 04, 2019) – While you're preparing this year's passionate, you're-the-best-thing-that-ever-happened-to-me Valentine's Day tribute for your significant other, here's a sobering thought: One in five adults who return home to live with their parents do so because of a broken heart. According to a Homes.com survey of nearly 1,100 members of the so-called "Boomerang Generation" and their parents, those that return to the nest due to a divorce or partner breakup is roughly the same percentage as those who return because they're out of work. In fact, the collapse of romantic relationships is the #1 move-back-home catalyst for Boomerang-ers ages 26-40 and the #2 incentive overall. More specifically, the survey revealed that: Love gone wrong is the primary reason for cohabiting with Mom and Dad for 33% of 26-30-year-old, 37% of 31-35-year-old and 24% of 36-40-year-old Boomerang-ers, outstripping all other considerations by as many as 14 points. Saving money for a home purchase or other major investment is the #1 motivation cited by Boomerang-ers in the 20-25 year-old cohort, while the need to care for aging parents tops the list for those 41 and older. Joblessness and debt rank just #3 and #4 overall as reasons to rejoin parents, even among 20-25-year-olds. Just 18% of Boomerang-ers in that age group return home because they lost or can't find a job, and 11% because of student loan or other debt. The survey also provides intriguing insights into Boomerang-ers' ages, living quarters, sources of conflict, financial arrangements, and overall rapport with their parental roommates. Among the findings: 16% of Boomerang-ers are 31 and older, with roughly half of this group returning home after living elsewhere for 11 years or more. 45% live in their childhood bedrooms, with the rest having been displaced either by choice or space limitations. 26% live in a guest bedroom, 12% in the basement, 5% in a guest house, 4% in the living room and 2% in the garage. Privacy and noise issues cause the most friction, followed by space constraints, clashes over money, and political disagreements. General tension is also common, with more than one-third reporting "good days and bad days," constant conflict, or difficult relationships dating back to childhood. 25% pay rent to their parents when they move back home, as reported by both parents and children. This is roughly the same across all age groups. The two sides disagree about other aspects of the financial arrangement, suggesting that either parents exaggerate their support or children minimize it. For example, 12% of parents claim they cover all of their child's expenses, but only 5% of Boomerang-ers themselves say their parents foot the entire bill. Similarly, 35% of parents say that each side pays its own bills, but 45% of children make that claim. Parents are generally supportive. Only 13% discourage adult children from returning home to live, and 77% place no time limit on the arrangement. The majority also report a relatively smooth relationship, with 58% of parents and 68% of children saying they get along well or "hardly know they're there." More information about the survey, including charts and graphs detailing key results, can be found at www.blog.homes.com. About Homes.com Homes.com offers today's demanding homebuyers, renters and those somewhere in between a simply smarter home search. With features like Homes.com Match, HomeShare and Snap & Search, homeshoppers now have a more personalized and conversational way to search for their next home. Since its launch over 25 years ago, Homes.com offers real estate professionals brand and property advertising, search engine marketing and instant response lead generation to help them succeed online. For more information, visit Homes.com.
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Equity Rich U.S. Properties Increase to New High in 2018
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Owning a Home Could Help You Get a Date with That Special Someone
Nearly 60 percent of millennial singles indicate homeownership makes a potential mate more attractive SANTA CLARA, Calif., Feb. 7, 2019 -- Realtor.com, the Home of Home Search, today released new survey data that shows owning a home might make you more attractive to that special someone you've had your eye on, especially if they are a millennial or a woman. Singles looking to boost their chances of dating a homeowner may want to considering living in the South or in the Midwest because they are home to the biggest shares of single female and male homeowners, respectively, according to the analysis. "Attractiveness is in the eye of the beholder, and this survey data suggests that many beholders find homeownership attractive, perhaps using it as a signal for financial savviness and success," said Danielle Hale, realtor.com®'s chief economist. "Single Millennials seem to find homeownership in a potential partner especially attractive, even if only one quarter feels that it is important." The survey, which included 500 people who identified as single and was conducted in late January, found that 46 percent of all singles thought homeownership made a potential partner attractive or very attractive. Women were more likely than men to agree with this, as 48 percent of women found it made a potential partner more attractive, versus 43 percent of men. Men, however, were slightly more likely to say that it made their potential partner very attractive. The survey also asked singles how important it was for a potential partner to be a homeowner. Similar to before, women were more likely than men to agree it was either important or very important that their partner was a homeowner. But the gap between genders was wider than when asking about attractiveness of homeowners, coming in at 29 and 19 percent for women and men, respectively. As a whole, 24 percent of single respondents felt it was important for their partner to be a homeowner. Millennials show strong desire for homeownership in their partner Millennials were the most likely to feel that homeownership boosted someone's attractiveness, with nearly 60 percent of the generation agreeing with the statement. Millennials also were the generation most likely to agree that it was either important or very important for their partner to be a homeowner, as indicated by 26 percent. Single male homeownership highest in the Midwest For those looking to find a potential home-owning male partner, the Midwest is going to be the best bet. The market with the greatest share of single male homeowners is Detroit, where they make up 23.4 percent of all males. It was followed by St. Louis with 21.3 percent, Minneapolis with 21.3 percent, Cleveland with 21.2 percent, and Pittsburgh with 19.9 percent.* Detroit, the top market for single men homeowners, has a median home price of $220,000, followed by St. Louis at $198,000, Minneapolis at $353,000, Cleveland at $170,000, and Pittsburgh at $170,000. On average, homes in these markets sell in 82 days, five days faster than the national median of 87 days. These markets have a high volume of young people, and relatively low median listing prices. In markets such as Detroit and St. Louis, with median list prices of $220,000 and $198,000, respectively, the lower price point has helped boost homeownership among singles. Single female homeownership strong in the South and Midwest Single women are one of the fastest growing demographics in the housing market, according to a recent realtor.com analysis. This trend can be seen strongest in Detroit, where single women homeowners makeup 23.1 percent of all women, followed by 21.4 percent in Baltimore, 21.2 percent in Charlotte, N.C., 20.7 percent in Philadelphia and 20.7 percent in Minneapolis. Detroit, the top market for single women homeowners, has a median home price of $220,000, followed by Baltimore at $297,000, Charlotte, N.C. at $320,000, Philadelphia at $250,000, and Minneapolis at $353,000. On average, homes in these markets sell in a rapid 75 days, 12 days faster than the national median of 87 days. Strong job opportunities and growing economies that draw many young professionals to the areas are also helping keep them in these markets as homeowners. Affordable home prices have also helped singles achieve homeownership in these markets. *Homeownership data by gender and relationship status sourced from IPUMS-USA, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org. Calculations based on ownership among household heads aged 18-54. About realtor.com® Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search℠, offers an extensive inventory of for-sale and rental listings, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. It pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is the trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com®.
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Migration Trend Reaches a Record High as 1 in 4 People Searching for a Home Looks to Change Metros
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Generation Z Needs to Start Saving $304 a Month Now to Buy a Home By Age 30
Location will be deciding factor in Generation Z's homeownership success; Midwest and South offer more affordable options SANTA CLARA, Calif., Jan. 31, 2019 -- Nearly 80 percent of Generation Z wants to own a home before age 30, and a new analysis released today by realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search℠, shows they will need to save $304 every month for the next 12 years to buy with a 10 percent down payment plus closing costs on a median priced home. According to the analysis, the median priced home in the U.S. is projected to cost $386,310 in 2031, when today's 18-year-old members of Generation Z turn 30. The analysis, which includes a 13-year forecast for median home prices in top 100 metros and different down payment savings plans, projects Generation Z will need to save the most to purchase a home in San Jose, Calif. where they will need to save $1,962 per month. The next most expensive locale is San Francisco ($1,439/mo.) followed by Los Angeles ($979/mo.), Honolulu ($946/mo.), and Oxnard, Calif. ($877/mo.). According to realtor.com®'s analysis of Optimal Blue mortgage data, in 2018 the typical under-30 home buyer used a seven percent down payment to successfully complete their home purchase. On average, in the top 10 most expensive metros, members of Generation Z will need to save an average of $948 a month, starting on their 18th birthday, to afford a 10 percent down payment and typical closing costs by the time they turn 30 years old. The median priced home in 2019 is expected to cost $265,000, but over the course of the next 12 years, the price is expected to increase nearly 50 percent, specifically another 46 percent to $386,310. This assumes prices grow at a very modest 3.2 percent per year over the next 12 years. "Choosing to live in one of the U.S.'s larger and more expensive metros, especially on the West Coast, is going to make homeownership a difficult task, but that doesn't mean that Gen Z should give up on their dreams," said Danielle Hale, realtor.com®'s chief economist. "The most important thing they can do is start saving as much as possible early on and let compound interest do the heavy lifting for them. They may also want to consider more affordable areas or different down payment amounts. Some widely available programs allow down payments as low as 3 percent, but a lower down payment can mean higher ongoing monthly costs. As with most decisions, there are pros and cons and a buyer needs to think these through to determine what's best for them." Midwest and South offer opportunities for an easier savings plan While the analysis reveals potentially daunting West Coast future home prices and monthly savings amounts, Generation Z can look to the Midwest and South for more affordable housing options. Youngstown, Ohio, topped the list of the most affordable metros, where Generation Z would only have to save $108 per month. It was followed by McAllen, Texas ($111/mo.), Toledo, Ohio ($141/mo.), Wichita, Kan. ($154/mo.), and Little Rock, Ark. ($156/mo.). With an average median home price of $191,381 in 2031 for the top 10 most affordable metros, an 18-year-old member of Generation Z will need to save an average of $150 a month, starting on their 18th birthday, to afford a 10 percent down payment by the time they turn 30. That comes out to saving $798 a month less than the average monthly saving required for the top 10 most expensive metros. 20 percent down payments paint a different picture While 10 percent down or less is far more common among first-time and younger home buyers, some members of Generation Z may want to use a 20 percent down payment to qualify for a lower mortgage rate and have a much lower monthly payment, but that might not be feasible in the nation's most expensive metros. On average, for the 10 most expensive metros in the U.S., Generation Z will need to save $1,645 a month for a 20 percent down payment and closing costs. That is $697 more every month than if they are aiming to put 10 percent down. While 20 percent has historically been the benchmark, this isn't true for first time homebuyers, and Generation Z should consider varying levels of down payments when planning to purchase a home, especially in higher cost metros in the U.S. Methodology: This analysis assumed an 18-year-old member of Generation Z started saving on his or her birthday, contributing the exact amount every month into a savings account with a fixed three percent annual return, compounded monthly. They will make their home purchase in 2031 on their 30th birthday, after making exactly 144 deposits over exactly 12 years. The calculated savings amount required includes money for a downpayment and typical closing costs of about 3.6 percent for first-time home buyers. Forecast median home price data comes from Moody's Analytics (economy.com). About realtor.com® Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search, offers an extensive inventory of for-sale and rental listings, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. It pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is the trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [NASDAQ: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com®.
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U.S. Foreclosure Activity Drops to 13-Year Low in 2018
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Renting a Home More Affordable than Buying in 59 Percent of U.S. Housing Markets
Home Prices Outpacing Wages in 80 Percent of the U.S. Housing Markets IRVINE, Calif. – Jan. 10, 2019 — ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation's premier property database, today released its 2019 Rental Affordability Report, which shows that renting a three-bedroom property is more affordable than buying a median-priced home in 442 of 755 U.S. counties analyzed for the report — 59 percent. The analysis incorporated recently released fair market rent data for 2019 from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics along with public record sales deed data from ATTOM Data Solutions in 755 U.S. counties with sufficient home sales data (see full methodology below). "With rental affordability outpacing home affordability in the majority of U.S. housing markets, and home prices rising faster than rental rates, the American dream of owning a home, may be just that — a dream, "said Jennifer von Pohlmann, director of content and PR at ATTOM Data Solutions. "With home price appreciation increasing annually at an average of 6.7 percent in those counties analyzed for this report and rental rates increasing an average of 3.5 percent, coupled with the fact that home prices are outpacing wages in 80 percent of the counties, renting a home is clearly becoming the more attractive option in this volatile housing market." Renting more affordable than buying in nation's most populated counties Renting is more affordable than buying a home in the nation's 18 most populated counties and in 37 of 40 counties with a population of 1 million or more (93 percent) — including Los Angeles County, California; Cook County (Chicago), Illinois; Harris County (Houston), Texas; Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona; and San Diego County, California. Other markets with a population of more than 1 million where it is more affordable to rent than to buy a home included counties in Miami, New York City, Seattle, Las Vegas, San Jose, San Francisco and Boston. Among the 40 U.S. counties analyzed in the report with a population of 1 million or more, the three where it is more affordable to buy a home than rent were Wayne County (Detroit), Michigan; Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania; and Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Ohio. Buy or Rent in 2019 Heat Map Least affordable rental markets in Northern California, Hawaii, D.C. The report shows that renting a three-bedroom property requires an average of 38.0 percent of weekly wages across the 755 counties analyzed for the report. The least affordable markets for renting are Santa Cruz County, California (81.7 percent of average wages to rent); Honolulu County, Hawaii (74.4 percent); Spotsylvania County, Virginia (73.0 percent); Maui County, Hawaii (69.5 percent); San Benito County, California (68.6 percent); Monroe County, Florida (67.3 percent); Sonoma County (Santa Rosa area), California (66.0 percent); Marin County (San Francisco area), California (65.6 percent); and Kings County, New York (63.7 percent). Most affordable rental markets in Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania The most affordable markets for renting are Roane County (Knoxville area), Tennessee (19.7 percent of average wages to rent); Peoria County, Illinois (23.8 percent); Mcminn County (Athens), Tennessee (23.8 percent); Green County (Dayton), Ohio (24.2 percent); and Rhea County (Dayton area), Ohio (24.6 percent). Among counties with a population of 1 million or more, those most affordable for renting are Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), Pennsylvania (25.1 percent); Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Ohio (25.6 percent); Saint Louis County, Missouri (26.4 percent); Oakland County (Detroit area), Michigan (26.7 percent); and Wayne County (Detroit), Michigan (27.7 percent). Rent growth outpacing wage growth in 52 percent of markets Average fair market rents rose faster than average weekly wages in 394 of the 755 counties analyzed in the report (52 percent), including Los Angeles County, California; Cook County (Chicago), Illinois; Harris County (Houston), Texas; Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona; and San Diego County, California. Average weekly wages rose faster than average fair market rents in 361 of the 755 counties analyzed in the report (48 percent), including Kings County (Brooklyn), New York; Queens County, New York; Clark County (Las Vegas), Nevada; Tarrant County (Dallas-Fort Worth), Texas; Santa Clara (San Jose), California; Broward County (Miami), Florida; and Alameda (San Francisco), California. Home prices rising faster than wages in 80 percent of markets Median home prices rose faster than average weekly wages in 601 of the 755 counties analyzed in the report (80 percent), including Los Angeles County, California; Cook County (Chicago), Illinois; Harris County (Houston), Texas; Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona; San Diego County, California; Orange County, California; and Miami-Dade County, Florida. Average weekly wages rose faster than median home prices in 154 of the 755 counties analyzed in the report (20 percent), including Kings County (Brooklyn), New York; Queens County, New York; King County (Seattle), Washington; Suffolk County, New York; and Bronx County, New York. Home prices rising faster than rents in 70 percent of markets Median home prices rose faster than average fair market rents in 531 of the 755 counties analyzed in the report, including Cook County (Chicago), Illinois; Harris County (Houston), Texas; Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona; Kings County (Brooklyn), New York; Queens County, New York; and Riverside County, California. Average fair market rents rose faster than median home prices in 224 of the 755 counties analyzed in the report (30 percent), including Los Angeles County, California; San Diego County, California; Orange County, California; Miami-Dade County, Florida; Dallas County, Texas; and Kings County (Seattle), Washington. About ATTOM Data Solutions ATTOM Data Solutions provides premium property data to power products that improve transparency, innovation, efficiency and disruption in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation's population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes and enhances the data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 9TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include bulk file licenses, APIs, market trends, marketing lists, match & append and more.
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Redfin Predicts 2019 Housing Market Will Be the Coolest in Years
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U.S. Home Affordability Drops to More Than 10-Year Low in Q4 2018
But Affordability Improves From Previous Quarter in 58 Percent of Local Housing Markets; Wage Growth Outpacing Home Price Growth in 22 Percent of Markets, Including San Diego, Brooklyn, Seattle, San Jose and Manhattan IRVINE, Calif. – Dec. 20, 2018 — ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation's premier property database, today released its Q4 2018 U.S. Home Affordability Report, which shows that the U.S. median home price in the fourth quarter was at the least affordable level since Q3 2008 — a more than 10-year low. The report calculates an affordability index based on percentage of income needed to buy a median-priced home relative to historic averages, with an index above 100 indicating median home prices are more affordable than the historic average, and an index below 100 indicating median home prices are less affordable than the historic average. (See full methodology below.) Nationwide, the Q4 2018 home affordability index of 91 was down from an index of 94 in the previous quarter and an index of 106 in Q4 2017 to the lowest level since Q3 2008, when the index was 87. Among 469 U.S. counties analyzed in the report, 357 (76 percent) posted a Q4 2018 affordability index below 100, meaning homes were less affordable than the long-term affordability averages for the county. That was down from a 10-year high of 78 percent of counties posting an affordability index below 100 in Q3 2018. "While poor home affordability continues to cloud the U.S. housing market, there are silver linings in the local data as home price appreciation falls more in line with wage growth," said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. "Affordability improved from the previous quarter in more than half of all local markets, and one in five local markets saw annual wage growth outpace annual home price appreciation, including high-priced areas such as San Diego, Brooklyn and Seattle." Q4 2018 Home Price Appreciation & Wage Growth Heat Map Home affordability improves from previous quarter in 58 percent of local markets Counter to the national trend, home affordability improved from the previous quarter in 272 of the 469 counties analyzed in the report (58 percent), including Cook County (Chicago), Illinois; Harris County (Houston), Texas; San Diego County, California; Orange County, California; and Miami-Dade County, Florida. Home affordability worsened compared to the previous quarter in 197 of the 469 counties analyzed in the report (42 percent), including Los Angeles County, California; Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona; Riverside County, California; San Bernardino County, California; and Clark County (Las Vegas), Nevada. Wages rising faster than home prices in 22 percent of markets Nationwide the median home sales price in Q4 2018 was $241,250, up 9 percent from a year ago, while the annualized average weekly wage of $56,381 was up 3 percent from a year ago. Annual home price appreciation in Q4 2018 outpaced annual average wage growth in 366 of the 469 counties analyzed in the report (78 percent), including Los Angeles County, California; Cook County (Chicago), Illinois; Harris County (Houston), Texas; Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona; and Orange County, California. Counter to the national trend, annual average wage growth outpaced annual home price appreciation in 103 of the 469 counties analyzed in the report (22 percent), including San Diego County, California; Kings County (Brooklyn), New York; King County (Seattle), Washington; Santa Clara County (San Jose), California; and New York County (Manhattan), New York. Highest share of income needed to buy a home in Brooklyn and Bay Area Nationwide, buying a median-priced home in Q4 2018 would require 35.0 percent of an average wage earner's income, above the historical average of 32.0 percent. Counties with the highest share of wages needed to buy a median priced home in Q4 2018 were Kings County (Brooklyn), New York (128.8 percent); Marin County, California (124.1 percent); Santa Cruz County, California (118.2 percent); Monterey County, California (96.9 percent); and San Luis Obispo County, California (94.4 percent). Counties with the lowest share of wages needed to buy a median-priced home in Q4 2018 were Baltimore City, Maryland (13.1 percent); Bibb County (Macon), Georgia (13.5 percent); Clayton County, Georgia (15.5 percent); Peoria County, Illinois (15.7 percent); and Wayne County (Detroit), Michigan (15.9 percent). Buying a home requires income of $100,000 or more in 15 percent of local markets Buying a median-priced home required more than $100,000 in annual income (assuming 3 percent down and a maximum front-end debt-to-income ratio of 28 percent) in 70 of the 469 counties analyzed in the report, led by New York County (Manhattan), New York ($408,977 to buy); San Francisco County, California ($375,491 to buy); San Mateo County, California ($368,242 to buy); Marin County, California ($315,524 to buy); and Santa Clara County (San Jose), California ($308,178 to buy. About ATTOM Data Solutions ATTOM Data Solutions provides premium property data to power products that improve transparency, innovation, efficiency and disruption in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation's population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes and enhances the data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 9TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include bulk file licenses, APIs, market trends, marketing lists, match & append and more.
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Tougher Road Ahead for Home Buyers and Sellers in 2019
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Top 10 Best Days of the Year to Buy a Home
Buyers willing to close the day after Christmas realize biggest discounts; Analysis also looks at best months to buy at the state and metro area levels IRVINE, Calif. — Nov. 20, 2018 — ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation's premier property database, today released an analysis of the best days of the year to buy a home, which shows that only 10 days of the year offer discounts below estimated market value — seven in December, and one each in October, November and February. According to the analysis, buyers willing to close on a home purchase the day after Christmas realize the biggest discounts below full market of any day in the year. This analysis of more than 18 million single family home and condo sales over the past five years is evidence of the hot sellers' market of the past five years. "People closing on a home purchase December 26 were submitting offers around Thanksgiving and starting their home search around Halloween — likely not a common path to home purchase for most buyers and exactly why it's the best time to buy," said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president with ATTOM Data Solutions. "Buyers and investors willing to start their home search right about when stores are setting up Christmas decorations will face less competition and likely be dealing with more motivated sellers, giving them the upper hand in price negotiations." Best Months to Buy The analysis also looked at best months to buy at the national level (December) and at the state and metro level. The states realizing the biggest discounts below full market value were Ohio (-8.8% in January); Michigan (-7.9% in February); Nebraska (-7.3% in December); Tennessee (-6.8% in December); and Delaware (-6.5% in December). The metro areas realizing the biggest discounts below full market value were Dayton (-13.1% in January); Detroit (-12.8% in February); Cleveland (-12.0% in January); Honolulu (-10.3% in June); and Milwaukee (-9.3% in December). Methodology For this analysis ATTOM Data Solutions looked at any calendar day in the last five years (2013 to 2017) with at least 10,000 single family home and condo sales. There were 362 days that matched this criteria, with the four exceptions being Jan. 1, July 4, Nov. 11 and Dec. 25. To calculate the premium or discount paid on a given day, ATTOM compared the median sales price for homes with a purchase closing on that day with the median automated valuation model (AVM) for those same homes at the time of sale. About ATTOM Data Solutions ATTOM Data Solutions provides premium property data to power products that improve transparency, innovation, efficiency and disruption in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation's population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes and enhances the data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 9TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include bulk file licenses, APIs, market trends, marketing lists, match & append and more.
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2019 Forecast: Existing-Home Sales to Stabilize and Price Growth to Continue
BOSTON (November 2, 2017) – Consumers should expect home sales to flatten and home prices to continue to increase, though at a slower pace, according to a residential housing and economic forecast session at NAR's 2018 REALTORS® Conference & Expo. As Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors®, presented his 2019 housing and economic forecast, he was joined onstage by Lisa Sturtevant, President of Lisa Sturtevant & Associates, LLC, who discussed the importance of affordable housing in the U.S. Much of Yun's presentation focused on recent declines in home sales, but in the context of long-term trends to illustrate the housing market's actual performance. "Ninety percent of markets are experiencing price gains while very few are experiencing consistent price declines," said Yun. "2017 was the best year for home sales in ten years, and 2018 is only down 1.5 percent year to date. Statistically, it is a mild twinge in the data and a very mild adjustment compared to the long-term growth we've been experiencing over the past few years." As to the possibility that we are currently experiencing a small bubble, Yun was quick to shut down any speculation. "The current market conditions are fundamentally different than what we were experiencing before the recession 10 years ago," said Yun. "Most states are reporting stable or strong market conditions, housing starts are under-producing instead of over-producing and we are seeing historically low foreclosure levels, indicating that people are living within their means and not purchasing homes they cannot afford. This is a stronger, more stable market compared to the loosely regulated market leading up to the bust." Housing affordability was also discussed by both panelists. While the U.S. is experiencing historically normal levels of affordability, potential buyers may be staying out of the market because of perceived problems with affordability. "NAR research shows that a lower percentage of consumers think that now is a good time to buy, while more are indicating that it is a good time to sell," said Yun. "Problems could arise if the market is flooded with too many sellers and not enough buyers. Fortunately, that does not appear to be the case, as indicated by months' supply of inventory at below five months." Sturtevant discussed the importance of homeownership on a social level - how homeowners tend to be in better physical and mental health and have greater opportunity for economic self-sufficiency. Additionally, communities with more homeowners tend to be more economically prosperous and better able to attract and retain workers. "I am a researcher, not an advocate; but the results of my research have compelled me to see the importance of affordable, stable housing, and the positive economic impact to local communities," said Sturtevant. Looking to next year, Yun shared his forecast for home sales and median home prices. "The forecast for home sales will be very boring - meaning stable," said Yun. With a few months of data remaining in 2018, Yun estimates that existing-home sales will finish at a pace of 5.345 million—a decrease from 2017 (5.51 million). In 2019, sales are forecasted to increase to 5.4 million, a 1 percent increase. The national median existing-home price is expected to rise to around $266,800 in 2019 (up 3.1 percent from 2018 this year and $274,000 in 2020. "Home price appreciation will slow down - the days of easy price gains are coming to an end - but prices will continue to rise." All of these forecasts, however, are dependent on higher levels of home production. "All indications are that we have a housing shortage. If you look at population growth and job growth, it is clear that we are not producing enough houses. This is often a local issue, not a national one, so NAR has created a website where local associations and Realtors® can go for information on how to advocate for increased supply in their communities," Said Yun. Commenting on the overall health of the U.S. economy, Yun noted that the economy is "good." He noted that we have low unemployment, record high job openings, historically low jobless claims, job additions for eight straight years and wages beginning to increase. "This type of activity in the economy should support the housing market, even as interest rates rise," said Yun. The National Association of Realtors® is America's largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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The Longest Housing Inventory Decline in History Comes to an End
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Single Females Remain a Force in Market, While First-time Buyers Continue to Struggle, According to Realtor 2018 Buyer and Seller Survey
WASHINGTON (October 29, 2018) – Single female buyers continue to be a powerful force in the market, while low inventory, rising interest rates and increasing home prices remain, holding back first-time buyers despite notable interest in buying a home. This is according to the National Association of Realtors®' 2018 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, which also identifies numerous current consumer and housing trends, including mounting student debt balances; the impact of pets on home buying decisions; increases in down payments for all buyers; the rising age of repeat buyers; and the fact that a vast number of respondents use a real estate agent to buy or sell a home, which kept for-sale-by-owner transactions at an all-time low. "With the lower end of the housing market – smaller, moderately priced homes – seeing the worst of the inventory shortage, first-time home buyers who want to enter the market are having difficulty finding a home they can afford," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Homes were selling in a median of three weeks and multiple offers were a common occurrence, further pushing up home prices. These factors contributed to the low number of first-time buyers and the struggles of would-be buyers dreaming of joining the ranks of homeownership." Here are some additional key trends of buyers and sellers detailed in this year's 150-page report. Single Female Buyers continue to be a strong force in the market For the second year in a row, single female buyers accounted for 18 percent of all buyers. The group was the second most common household buyer type behind married couples (63 percent). Single male buyers came in third and accounted for half the number of buyers as their female counterparts (9 percent). However, single males tended to purchase more expensive homes, with a median price of $215,000, compared to single females with a median price of $189,000 (the lowest of all household buyer types). Share of first-time buyers continues to fall The share of first-time home buyers continued a three-year decline, falling 33 percent (34 percent last year). This number has not been 40 percent or higher since the first-time home buyers credit ended in 2010. "Low inventory, rising interest rates and student loan debt are all factors contributing to the suppression of first-time home buyers," said Yun. "However, existing home sales data shows inventory has been rising slowly on a year-over-year basis in recent months, which may encourage more would-be buyers who were previously convinced they could not find a home to enter the market." Buyers continue to rely on agents and the internet to find the right home For the third year in a row, 95 percent of buyers used the internet at some point during their home search process, and 50 percent said that they found the home they eventually purchased online. Eighty-six percent of buyers used a real estate agent in their home search, and repeat buyers were more likely to use an agent than first-timers (87 percent to 86). Overall, 87 percent of buyers ended up purchasing their home through a real estate agent (the same as 2017), as finding the right home and negotiating terms of sale were the top factors buyers desired from their agent. Ninety percent of respondents said they would definitely or probably use their agent again or recommend them to someone else. "With inventory so low, buyers are relying on their agent's knowledge of markets and neighborhoods to find listings, rather than relying only on online searches," said NAR President Elizabeth Mendenhall, a sixth-generation Realtor® from Columbia, Missouri and CEO of RE/MAX Boone Realty. "A Realtor® has years of experience, generating insight and expertise that can help buyers navigate a tight market where buyers are forced to move fast and make competitive bids in order to get their dream home." Student loan debt continues to be an issue Once again, student loan debt stands out as a challenge keeping would-be buyers out of the market. Among the 13 percent of buyers who said saving for a down payment was the most difficult part of the buying process, 50 percent reported that student loan debt had inhibited their ability to save for a home purchase or down payment. Twenty-four percent of all buyers indicated that they have student loan debt, at a median of $28,000, and 40 percent of first-time buyers indicated that they have student loan debt at a median of $30,000. "Even with a thriving economy and an abundance of job opportunities in many markets, monthly student loan payments coupled with sky-high rents and rising home prices make it exceedingly difficult for potential buyers to put aside savings for a down payment," said Yun. Down payments higher for all buyers Overall, buyers paid a median 13 percent down payment, up from 10 percent last year and the highest since 2005. First-time buyers paid a median 7 percent down payment, up from 5 percent last year and the highest since 1997 (9 percent), while repeat buyers paid a median 16 percent, up from last year's 14 percent and the highest since 2010. A majority of buyers ranked their personal savings as the primary source of their down payment (58 percent). Repeat buyers were most likely to use the proceeds from the sale of the previous primary residence (56 percent), while first-time buyers were the most likely to use a gift from a friend or relative (24 percent). Nearly all buyers choose a single-family home A majority of buyers continue to choose a detached, single-family home (82 percent) as opposed to a townhouse or row house (8 percent) or a condo/duplex/apartment unit (4 percent). Median age of repeat home buyers skyrockets; stays flat for first-time buyers For the third straight year, the median age of first-time home buyers was 32 years old. A majority of first-time buyers were married couples (54 percent), followed by single females (18 percent). Their median income was the same as last year's at $75,000, and they spent a median of $203,700 on a home. These buyers were more likely to purchase smaller homes than repeat buyers, with a median size of 1600 square feet. The age of repeat buyers increased to an all-time high of 55 years old (up from 54 last year). A majority of repeat buyers were also married couples (57 percent), followed by single females (18 percent). Their median income increased from $97,500 last year to $100,000 and they spent a median of $280,000 on a home. The median home size remained the same as last year, at 2000 square feet. Pets Influencing Home Buying Decisions Fifteen percent of all buyers said that convenience to vets and/or outdoor space for their pet was a critical factor in determining where they wanted to purchase their home. That number rises to 20 percent, or one-fifth of buyers, for unmarried couples. "NAR conducted a survey on the important role pets play in our home buying decisions and the unique considerations that pet owners face," said Mendenhall. "Realtors® understand that when someone buys a home, they are buying it with the needs of their whole family in mind. And any pet owner will tell you that their animals are an important and beloved part of their family." Downsizing not a trend Only 9 percent of buyers listed downsizing as a factor in their decision to move. In fact, 73 percent of buyers purchased a home that was either larger or similar in size to what they previously owned. "Homeowners that may be looking to downsize tend to be competing for the same homes as first-time buyers, and we are experiencing a scarcity of inventory in those smaller sized, moderately priced homes," said Yun. "These buyers, not finding the smaller home they are looking for, may decide to purchase an equivalently sized home or simply stay put in their current home." FSBOs at record low For-Sale-By-Owner sales accounted for 7 percent of all sales – the lowest number recorded in this survey's history. This number has been steadily declining since a high of 15 percent in 1981, with more and more owners relying on the expertise of an agent to help navigate the complicated process and intricacies of a home sale. NAR mailed a 129-question survey in July 2018 using a random sample weighted to be representative of sales on a geographic basis to 155,250 recent home buyers. Respondents had the option to fill out the survey via hard copy or online; the online survey was available in English and Spanish. A total of 7,191 responses were received from primary residence buyers. After accounting for undeliverable questionnaires, the survey had an adjusted response rate of 4.6 percent. The sample at the 95 percent confidence level has a confidence interval of plus-or-minus 1.15 percent. Recent home buyers had to have purchased a home between July 2017 and June 2018. All information is characteristic of the 12-month period ending in June 2018 with the exception of income data, which are for 2017. The National Association of Realtors® is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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