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CoreLogic Reports June Home Prices Increased by 3.4% Year Over Year

August 06 2019

CoreLogic, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast for June 2019, which shows home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 3.4% from June 2018. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 0.4% in June 2019. (May 2019 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results each month.)

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Single-family home prices stand at an all-time high and continue to increase on an annual basis, with the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicating annual price growth will increase by 5.2% from June 2019 to June 2020. On a month-over-month basis, the forecast calls for home prices to increase by 0.5% from June 2019 to July 2019. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

"Tepid home sales have caused home prices to rise at the slowest pace for the first half of a year since 2011," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. "Price growth continues to be faster for lower-priced homes, as first-time buyers and investors are both actively seeking entry-level homes. With incomes up and current mortgage rates about 0.8 percentage points below what they were one year ago, home sales should have a better sales pace in the second half of 2019 than a year earlier, leading to a quickening in price growth over the next year."

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According to the CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI), an analysis of housing values in the country's 100 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, 38% of metropolitan areas have an overvalued housing market as of June 2019. The MCI analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued, by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals such as disposable income. As of June 2019, 24% of the top 100 metropolitan areas were undervalued, and 38% were at value.

When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 42% were overvalued, 16% were undervalued and 42% were at value. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10% above the long-term, sustainable level. An undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10% below the sustainable level.

During the second quarter of 2019, CoreLogic together with RTi Research of Norwalk, Connecticut, conducted an extensive survey measuring consumer-housing sentiment among various millennial age cohorts. The study found home-price increases in lower-cost homes disproportionately impact older millennials (ages 30 - 39). Additionally, this cohort is significantly more active in searching for a new home than any other age group. Nearly half (45%) say they purchased a home in the past three years, while 25% say they will likely do so within the next year. While affordability concerns drive older millennials toward renting, they have more positive market perceptions than older generations and 37% say purchasing a home within their market is at least somewhat affordable.

"Millennial homebuyers are no longer a trend on the industry horizon. In fact, they are the new, first-time homebuyers of today. However, only about half of recent millennial buyers were satisfied with the number of options of available homes in their market or price range," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "Affordable housing continues to be a growing issue. A deeper look at the data shows that 43% of those surveyed indicated they couldn't afford to buy a new home or are concerned they won't be able to."

About the CoreLogic Consumer Housing Sentiment Study

In the second quarter of 2019, 508 Millennial renters and homeowners were surveyed by CoreLogic together with RTi Research. This study is a quarterly pulse of U.S. housing market dynamics. Each quarter, the research focuses on a different issue related to current housing topics. This first quarterly study concentrated on consumer sentiment within high-priced markets. The survey has a sampling error of +/- 3.1% at the total respondent level with a 95% confidence level.

About RTi Research

RTi Research is an innovative, global market research and brand strategy consultancy headquartered in Norwalk, CT. Founded in 1979, RTi has been consistently recognized by the American Marketing Association as one of the top 50 U.S. insights companies. The company serves a broad base of leading firms in Financial Services, Consumer Goods, and Pharmaceuticals as well as partnering with leading academic centers of excellence.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), the leading provider of property insights and solutions, promotes a healthy housing market and thriving communities. Through its enhanced property data solutions, services and technologies, CoreLogic enables real estate professionals, financial institutions, insurance carriers, government agencies and other housing market participants to help millions of people find, acquire and protect their homes. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.